Published on: 2025-07-03

Intelligence Report: The International Community Needs to Support the Haitian Government’s Efforts to Re-establish Security and Stability – UK Statement at the UN Security Council

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The UK has emphasized the urgent need for international support to stabilize Haiti, highlighting ongoing violence and the destabilizing influence of gangs. The UK commends Kenya’s leadership in supporting Haitian police and stresses the importance of a multinational security mission. The report recommends coordinated international efforts to strengthen Haiti’s security forces and facilitate democratic processes.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

– **Surface Events**: Continued violence and gang activities are disrupting Haitian society.
– **Systemic Structures**: Weak law enforcement and political instability are exacerbating security challenges.
– **Worldviews**: International perception of Haiti as a fragile state necessitates external intervention.
– **Myths**: The belief in the inevitability of instability in Haiti hinders proactive measures.

Cross-Impact Simulation

– Potential regional destabilization if Haiti’s security situation worsens.
– Economic dependencies on international aid may increase if stability is not restored.

Scenario Generation

– **Best Case**: Successful multinational intervention leads to stabilized security and democratic elections.
– **Worst Case**: Continued violence leads to regional spillover and increased humanitarian crises.
– **Most Likely**: Incremental improvements with sustained international support and pressure.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Political**: Prolonged instability may undermine democratic processes and governance.
– **Economic**: Persistent insecurity could deter investment and exacerbate economic decline.
– **Military**: Insufficient support for Haitian security forces may lead to increased gang control.
– **Social**: Continued violence may lead to humanitarian crises and displacement.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance international coordination to provide comprehensive support to Haitian security forces.
• Facilitate political dialogue to ensure inclusive and credible elections.
• Implement targeted sanctions against entities undermining stability.
• Scenario-based Projections:
  • **Best Case**: Establishment of a stable government and improved security within 12 months.
  • **Worst Case**: Escalation of violence leading to regional instability within 6 months.
  • **Most Likely**: Gradual improvement with sustained international engagement over 18 months.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

– Fergus Eckersley
– Kenyan leadership in the security mission

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional stability, international intervention, democratic processes