Published on: 2025-07-02

Intelligence Report: The International Community Needs to Support the Haitian Government’s Efforts to Re-establish Security and Stability – UK Statement at the UN Security Council

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The UK has emphasized the urgent need for international support to stabilize Haiti, highlighting ongoing violence and the destabilizing influence of gangs. The UK commends Kenya’s leadership in supporting Haitian police and stresses the importance of a multinational security mission. The report recommends immediate action to bolster Haiti’s security forces and facilitate democratic processes.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

– **Surface Events**: Continued violence and gang activities in Haiti.
– **Systemic Structures**: Weak law enforcement and political instability.
– **Worldviews**: International perception of Haiti as a high-risk area.
– **Myths**: The belief that external intervention alone can restore stability.

Cross-Impact Simulation

– Potential spillover effects into neighboring countries if instability persists.
– Economic dependencies could be strained, impacting regional trade.

Scenario Generation

– **Best Case**: Successful international intervention leads to restored stability and democratic governance.
– **Worst Case**: Continued violence leads to further destabilization and regional insecurity.
– **Most Likely**: Incremental improvements with sustained international support.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Political**: Prolonged instability could undermine regional governance structures.
– **Military**: Escalation of violence may necessitate increased international military presence.
– **Economic**: Deteriorating security could deter investment and aid, worsening economic conditions.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance support for Haitian security forces through training and resources.
• Facilitate the establishment of a robust multinational security mission.
• Encourage constitutional reforms and the establishment of an electoral framework to support democratic processes.
• Scenario-based projections suggest focusing on building local capacity for long-term stability.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

– Fergus Eckersley
– BINUH (United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti)
– OHCHR (Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights)

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional stability, international intervention, democratic governance