Published on: 2025-10-07

Intelligence Report: The lefts deep-rooted violence is what insurrection really looks like – New York Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The intelligence suggests a narrative framing leftist political actions as violent insurrection. The most supported hypothesis is that this narrative is part of a broader strategy to delegitimize political opposition by highlighting isolated incidents of violence. Confidence in this assessment is moderate due to potential bias in the source. Recommended action includes monitoring rhetoric escalation and preparing counter-narratives to maintain political stability.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The narrative accurately reflects a systemic pattern of violence within leftist movements, posing a significant threat to national security.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The narrative is exaggerated and selectively highlights incidents to create a perception of widespread violence, serving political objectives to undermine leftist credibility.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis B is better supported. The source selectively presents incidents without broader context, suggesting a potential bias aimed at influencing public perception.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The source assumes a direct link between isolated violent acts and broader leftist ideology.
– **Red Flags**: Lack of comprehensive data on the frequency and scale of such incidents across the political spectrum.
– **Cognitive Bias**: Confirmation bias may influence the interpretation of events to fit a pre-existing narrative.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Patterns**: Increased polarization and rhetoric could lead to further political violence.
– **Cascading Threats**: Potential for retaliatory actions from opposing political factions.
– **Geopolitical**: Domestic instability could weaken international standing and influence.
– **Psychological**: Public perception of instability may erode trust in democratic institutions.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance monitoring of political rhetoric to identify potential escalation points.
• Develop counter-narratives to promote unity and reduce polarization.
• Scenario Projections:
  • **Best Case**: De-escalation of rhetoric and restoration of political dialogue.
  • **Worst Case**: Escalation into widespread civil unrest.
  • **Most Likely**: Continued polarization with sporadic incidents of violence.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Stephen Miller
– Stephen King
– Nicholas Roske
– Brett Kavanaugh
– Jay Jones
– Todd Gilbert
– Glenn Youngkin
– Abigail Spanberger
– Charlie Kirk

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, political polarization, media influence, counter-terrorism