Published on: 2025-08-29

Intelligence Report: ‘The people of Haiti are in a perfect storm of suffering’ warns UN chief – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The situation in Haiti is critical, with escalating gang violence and a humanitarian crisis exacerbated by insufficient international aid. The most supported hypothesis suggests that without immediate and robust international intervention, the situation will deteriorate further, potentially leading to a complete collapse of state functions. Confidence Level: High. Recommended action includes urgent international support and funding to stabilize the situation and prevent further humanitarian disaster.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The current crisis in Haiti will continue to worsen due to inadequate international response and internal governance failures, leading to increased violence and humanitarian suffering.

Hypothesis 2: The recent efforts by the UN and the proposed multinational security support mission will stabilize the situation, reducing violence and improving humanitarian conditions.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 1 is better supported by the evidence of ongoing violence, lack of funding, and historical neglect. Hypothesis 2 relies on assumptions of effective international coordination and timely intervention, which are currently lacking.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions include the belief that international intervention will be effective and timely. Red flags are the historical pattern of neglect and underfunding, and the potential for miscommunication or lack of coordination among international actors. The intelligence lacks detailed plans for the proposed multinational security support mission, raising concerns about its feasibility.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The continuation of the current trajectory could lead to a complete breakdown of societal order in Haiti, with regional spillover effects including increased migration and regional instability. The economic collapse could further fuel criminal activities and violence. Geopolitically, this situation could strain relations between neighboring countries and international stakeholders.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate increase in international funding and logistical support to address the humanitarian needs.
• Deployment of the multinational security support mission with clear objectives and robust rules of engagement.
• Best-case scenario: Stabilization within six months with reduced violence and improved humanitarian conditions.
• Worst-case scenario: Total collapse of state functions and increased regional instability.
• Most likely scenario: Continued instability with sporadic improvements contingent on international intervention effectiveness.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

António Guterres, Catherine Russell, Haitian National Police, UN Security Council.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, humanitarian crisis, international intervention, regional focus