Published on: 2025-10-01

Intelligence Report: The Taliban government in Afghanistan rejects reports of a nationwide internet ban – Financial Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the internet disruptions in Afghanistan are due to decaying infrastructure rather than a deliberate ban by the Taliban. This assessment is based on the Taliban’s public statements and the technical explanation provided. However, given the context of previous communication blackouts and the strategic use of information control, there remains a moderate level of uncertainty. Recommended action includes monitoring infrastructure repairs and verifying the Taliban’s claims through independent sources. Confidence Level: Moderate.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The internet disruptions are a result of decaying fiber optic infrastructure, as claimed by the Taliban. This explanation aligns with the technical issues cited and the Taliban’s public statements.

2. **Hypothesis B**: The internet disruptions are a deliberate action by the Taliban to control information and combat “immorality,” as suggested by rumors of a decree from Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions for Hypothesis A**: The Taliban’s statements are truthful, and the infrastructure issues are genuine. Assumes no ulterior motive for information control.
– **Assumptions for Hypothesis B**: The Taliban has a strategic interest in controlling information flow and has the capability to enforce a nationwide ban.
– **Red Flags**: Lack of independent verification of infrastructure issues, previous instances of communication blackouts, and the strategic advantage of information control for the Taliban.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Economic**: Prolonged internet disruptions could severely impact banking, commerce, and aviation, leading to economic instability.
– **Cyber**: Potential for increased cyber vulnerabilities if infrastructure is not promptly repaired.
– **Geopolitical**: Disruptions may strain relations with international humanitarian organizations and affect aid delivery.
– **Psychological**: Public distrust and fear may increase if communication remains unreliable, potentially destabilizing the social fabric.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor the progress of infrastructure repairs and verify claims through independent technical assessments.
• Engage with international organizations to provide technical assistance for infrastructure improvements.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Infrastructure issues are resolved quickly, restoring normalcy.
  • Worst Case: Prolonged disruptions lead to economic and social instability.
  • Most Likely: Gradual restoration with ongoing localized disruptions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Zabihullah Mujahid
– Hibatullah Akhundzada
– Maruf Nabizada

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus