Published on: 2025-07-01

Intelligence Report: Todays AI Could Make Pandemics 5 Times More Likely Experts Predict – Time

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have significantly increased the risk of human-caused pandemics, potentially making them five times more likely. This report highlights the potential misuse of AI in bioweapon creation and the need for stringent safeguards. Key recommendations include enhancing AI model restrictions and imposing stricter regulations on genetic synthesis companies.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Adversarial Threat Simulation

Simulated scenarios suggest that AI tools can assist malicious actors in overcoming technical barriers to bioweapon development, necessitating improved defensive measures.

Indicators Development

Identified potential indicators of AI misuse, including unusual patterns in genetic code requests and AI model interactions, to enable early detection of bioweapon development activities.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Probabilistic models indicate a significant increase in pandemic risk due to AI capabilities surpassing those of expert virologists in specific tasks, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring and adaptation of risk assessments.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The integration of AI into bioweapon development poses a multi-domain threat, impacting public health, national security, and global stability. The potential for AI to lower the expertise threshold for bioweapon creation could lead to widespread and uncontrolled dissemination of dangerous pathogens.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Strengthen AI model safeguards to prevent misuse, including implementing robust access controls and monitoring mechanisms.
• Enhance regulatory frameworks for genetic synthesis companies to ensure comprehensive screening of genetic code requests.
• Develop international cooperation mechanisms to share intelligence and best practices for AI and biosecurity risk management.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Effective global collaboration and regulation mitigate AI-related bioweapon risks.
  • Worst Case: Inadequate safeguards lead to a significant bioweapon incident, causing a global health crisis.
  • Most Likely: Gradual increase in AI regulation and oversight reduces but does not eliminate risks.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Seth Donoughe, Josh Rosenberg

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, biosecurity