Published on: 2025-04-13

Intelligence Report: Trkiye Iraq hold security meeting at Antalya forum – Hurriyet Daily News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Türkiye and Iraq have agreed to form a joint committee to address the issue of ISIL camps in Syria, emphasizing the urgency of repatriating foreign nationals. Both countries are committed to combating terrorism, particularly focusing on the PKK threat. A joint operation center is to be established under the “Quintet Mechanism” to prevent ISIL resurgence. The upcoming Türkiye-Iraq High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meeting is expected to further solidify these efforts.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The agreement between Türkiye and Iraq to form a joint committee highlights a strategic alignment in addressing regional security threats, particularly ISIL. The focus on repatriation of ISIL members and their families from camps in Syria is a critical step towards reducing the risk of radicalization and potential resurgence of terrorist activities. The emphasis on PKK as a common threat further solidifies the bilateral cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts. The establishment of a joint operation center under the “Quintet Mechanism” indicates a multilateral approach to regional security.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The collaboration between Türkiye and Iraq could significantly impact regional stability by reducing the influence of ISIL and PKK. However, the repatriation process poses risks of inadequate deradicalization and reintegration of former ISIL members. The geopolitical dynamics involving Syria and neighboring countries could influence the effectiveness of the “Quintet Mechanism.” Economic interests may be affected by the ongoing security concerns, potentially impacting foreign investments and regional trade.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance intelligence sharing and coordination between Türkiye and Iraq to effectively monitor and manage ISIL and PKK threats.
• Develop comprehensive deradicalization and reintegration programs for repatriated individuals to mitigate the risk of recidivism.
• Engage with international partners to support the “Quintet Mechanism” and ensure a collaborative approach to regional security.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful repatriation and reintegration of ISIL members lead to reduced terrorist activities and enhanced regional stability.
Worst-case scenario: Ineffective management of repatriated individuals results in increased radicalization and resurgence of terrorist activities.
Most likely scenario: Gradual improvement in regional security with ongoing challenges in managing the repatriation process and multilateral cooperation.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Hakan Fidan, Fuad Hussein, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Muhammed Shia Al Sudani. Key entities include the “Quintet Mechanism” and the Türkiye-Iraq High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council.