Published on: 2025-10-23

Intelligence Report: Tropical Storm Melissa puts Caribbean’s most flood-vulnerable places at risk – Yale Climate Connections

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Tropical Storm Melissa poses a significant risk of severe flooding and mudslides in the Caribbean, particularly affecting Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic. The most supported hypothesis is that Melissa will strengthen and follow a northwest trajectory, impacting vulnerable regions with potentially devastating consequences. Confidence level is moderate due to model discrepancies. Recommended action includes preemptive disaster response planning and international aid coordination to mitigate humanitarian impacts.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Tropical Storm Melissa will strengthen and follow a northwest trajectory, impacting Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic with severe flooding and mudslides. This hypothesis is supported by the National Hurricane Center’s forecast and the European model’s predictions of a slow westward track.

Hypothesis 2: Melissa will weaken due to high wind shear and remain a less organized system, posing minimal threat to land. This hypothesis is supported by the GFS model’s prediction of a northward turn and the historical tendency for late-season storms to dissipate in the Caribbean.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions include the accuracy of current meteorological models and the persistence of warm sea surface temperatures. A red flag is the lack of consensus among models regarding Melissa’s path and intensity, indicating uncertainty. The assumption that governmental instability will exacerbate disaster response in Haiti is critical but unverified.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The primary risk is humanitarian, with potential for significant loss of life and displacement in Haiti. Economic impacts include damage to infrastructure and agriculture. Geopolitically, inadequate response could strain regional relations and international aid efforts. The psychological impact on affected populations could lead to increased migration pressures.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate coordination with international aid organizations to prepare for potential disaster relief efforts.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Melissa weakens, causing minimal damage.
  • Worst Case: Melissa strengthens, leading to catastrophic flooding and loss of life.
  • Most Likely: Moderate strengthening with significant but manageable impacts.
• Enhance monitoring and forecasting capabilities to improve predictive accuracy.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Kim Wood (University of Arizona), National Hurricane Center, European and GFS model developers, Google DeepMind AI team.

7. Thematic Tags

natural disasters, humanitarian aid, climate change, regional stability