Published on: 2025-08-23

Intelligence Report: Trump Can Prevent a Genocide in Sudan – Daily Signal

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is significantly backing the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and potential genocide in the region. Confidence in this assessment is moderate due to the complexity of regional dynamics and the need for further corroboration. Recommended action includes diplomatic engagement with the UAE to leverage their influence over the RSF and prevent further atrocities.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The UAE is actively supporting the RSF in Sudan, contributing to the escalation of violence and potential genocide. This support includes logistical and military aid, potentially facilitating the RSF’s operations in Darfur.

2. **Hypothesis B**: The RSF’s actions are primarily driven by internal dynamics and historical ethnic tensions, with the UAE’s involvement being overstated or misinterpreted. The RSF’s operations are a continuation of long-standing conflicts rather than a direct result of external support.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: Hypothesis A assumes that the UAE has both the capability and intent to influence the RSF significantly. Hypothesis B assumes that internal Sudanese dynamics are the primary drivers of the conflict.
– **Red Flags**: The reliance on reports of UAE involvement without direct evidence could indicate confirmation bias. The complexity of Sudanese internal politics may obscure the true extent of external influence.
– **Missing Data**: Direct evidence of UAE’s logistical support and detailed accounts of RSF’s internal decision-making processes.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The escalation of violence in Sudan could lead to a full-scale humanitarian crisis, destabilizing the region and potentially spilling over into neighboring countries. The involvement of external actors like the UAE could complicate international diplomatic efforts and lead to broader geopolitical tensions. The potential for ethnic cleansing and genocide presents severe moral and legal challenges for the international community.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

Engage in diplomatic talks with the UAE to leverage their influence over the RSF and halt support that contributes to the conflict.
Coordinate with international bodies such as the African Union and the United Nations to apply pressure on the RSF and support humanitarian efforts.
Scenario-based projections:
- **Best Case**: Diplomatic efforts lead to a reduction in violence and a negotiated settlement in Sudan.
- **Worst Case**: Continued escalation results in widespread genocide and regional instability.
- **Most Likely**: Ongoing conflict with intermittent international diplomatic interventions, leading to a protracted humanitarian crisis.