Published on: 2025-07-15

Intelligence Report: Trump Must Make the Abraham Accords the Center of His Middle East Strategy – The National Interest

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Abraham Accords should be prioritized as a central component of Middle East strategy to enhance regional stability and foster diplomatic relations. This report utilizes structured analytic techniques to ensure comprehensive analysis and strategic recommendations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Adversarial Threat Simulation

Simulations indicate potential cyber threats targeting diplomatic communications related to the Abraham Accords. Strengthening cybersecurity measures is crucial to safeguard sensitive negotiations.

Indicators Development

Monitoring regional political shifts and cyber activities can provide early warnings of threats to the Accords’ implementation.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Probabilistic models suggest a moderate likelihood of cyber disruptions impacting diplomatic efforts, necessitating proactive defense strategies.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The Abraham Accords present opportunities for enhanced cooperation but also expose vulnerabilities to cyber threats. Potential disruptions could undermine diplomatic progress and regional stability. Cross-domain risks include economic impacts from destabilized trade routes and increased military tensions.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance cybersecurity protocols to protect diplomatic communications and sensitive data related to the Accords.
• Foster regional intelligence-sharing initiatives to detect and mitigate emerging threats.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Strengthened diplomatic ties lead to regional stability and economic growth.
  • Worst Case: Cyber disruptions derail diplomatic efforts, escalating regional tensions.
  • Most Likely: Incremental progress with occasional setbacks due to cyber threats.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Donald Trump, Jared Kushner, Benjamin Netanyahu, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus