Published on: 2026-01-14

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Intelligence Report: It is now very likely Trump will order his military option of choice on Iran

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

There is a strong likelihood that President Trump will order air strikes against Iran, targeting IRGC and Basij forces, in response to the Iranian regime’s violent crackdown on protesters. This action could significantly escalate tensions in the region, affecting US relations with Middle Eastern allies and adversaries. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate, given the current geopolitical dynamics and the President’s previous statements.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: President Trump will order air strikes against Iranian military targets. This is supported by his public statements promising action if the Iranian regime attacks its own people, and the current absence of US naval forces which limits military options to air strikes. However, the lack of explicit confirmation from US military or intelligence sources introduces uncertainty.
• Hypothesis B: President Trump will refrain from military action and instead pursue diplomatic or economic measures. This could be due to potential regional destabilization and the risk of Iranian retaliation. Contradicting evidence includes Trump’s previous rhetoric and the immediate need to support Iranian protesters.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to Trump’s explicit warnings and the tactical feasibility of air strikes. Indicators that could shift this judgment include new diplomatic engagements or a de-escalation in Iranian domestic violence.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The US has sufficient air power in the region; the Iranian regime will continue its crackdown; regional allies will support US actions.
• Information Gaps: Precise US military capabilities in the region; Iran’s potential retaliatory measures; internal US administration deliberations.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential overreliance on public statements; Iranian misinformation campaigns; confirmation bias towards military action.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The potential US military action against Iran could lead to significant geopolitical shifts, impacting regional stability and global economic conditions.

• Political / Geopolitical: Possible escalation into broader conflict; strain on US-Iran relations; impact on US alliances in the Middle East.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Increased threat of Iranian or proxy retaliatory attacks against US interests; heightened regional security tensions.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for cyber retaliation by Iran; increased misinformation and propaganda efforts.
• Economic / Social: Potential disruption in global oil markets; increased social unrest within Iran; broader economic sanctions impacts.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance intelligence collection on Iranian military movements; engage with regional allies to coordinate responses; prepare for potential cyber threats.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Strengthen regional defense partnerships; develop contingency plans for escalation; support diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Successful deterrence without military engagement, leading to diplomatic resolution.
  • Worst: Full-scale military conflict with regional destabilization.
  • Most-Likely: Limited air strikes followed by increased diplomatic tensions and regional instability.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Donald Trump (US President)
• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
• Basij Militia
• Not clearly identifiable from open sources in this snippet.

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, military strategy, Middle East tensions, US foreign policy, Iran protests, air strikes, regional security, geopolitical risk

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.

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