Published on: 2025-03-18

Intelligence Report: Trump Should Resist Another America-Last War in the Middle East – The American Conservative

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The report emphasizes the strategic necessity for avoiding further military involvement in the Middle East, particularly in Yemen and Iran. It highlights the potential negative impact on U.S. resources, economic interests, and geopolitical stability. Key recommendations include resisting escalation and focusing on diplomatic solutions to maintain regional stability and safeguard economic interests.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The analysis identifies the risks associated with escalating military actions in the Middle East. The ongoing conflict in Yemen, compounded by the Houthi movement’s activities, poses a threat to international shipping routes, particularly in the Red Sea. The report suggests that previous military campaigns have been costly and ineffective, with significant collateral damage and limited strategic gains. The potential for conflict with Iran further complicates the geopolitical landscape, risking broader regional instability.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The primary risks include:

• Increased military expenditure and resource allocation, diverting focus from other strategic regions like the Indo-Pacific.
• Potential economic disruptions due to threats to shipping lanes, impacting global trade, particularly between Asia and Europe.
• Heightened tensions with Iran, which could lead to broader regional conflicts and destabilize global oil markets.
• Damage to U.S. international reputation and legacy, particularly if military actions result in significant civilian casualties and humanitarian crises.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Prioritize diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, focusing on multilateral negotiations with regional stakeholders.
• Enhance intelligence and surveillance capabilities to monitor and mitigate threats without direct military engagement.
• Invest in alternative energy and trade routes to reduce dependency on Middle Eastern oil and shipping lanes.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful diplomatic negotiations lead to reduced tensions and stabilization in the region, preserving economic interests and international relations.

Worst-case scenario: Escalation of military conflict with Iran and increased Houthi attacks lead to significant economic disruptions and regional instability.

Most likely outcome: Continued low-level conflicts with sporadic escalations, requiring ongoing diplomatic and strategic management to prevent broader conflicts.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Significant individuals mentioned in the report include Trump, Joe Biden, Samuel Paparo, Mike Waltz, and Benjamin Netanyahu. The report also references entities such as the Houthi movement, Iran, and the American military.