Published on: 2026-01-20

AI-powered OSINT brief from verified open sources. Automated NLP signal extraction with human verification. See our Methodology and Why WorldWideWatchers.

Intelligence Report: Scam Marketplace Tudou Guarantee Shutters Telegram Ops

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Tudou Guarantee, a major player in the Southeast Asia scam economy, is closing its Telegram operations following sanctions by the US and UK against Prince Group. This move may indicate a strategic pivot or a full shutdown. The development affects global fraud networks and law enforcement efforts. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: Tudou Guarantee is shutting down its Telegram operations as a precursor to a full operational shutdown due to the impact of sanctions and law enforcement actions. Supporting evidence includes the arrest of Chen Zhi and the drop in activity in Tudou’s wallets. However, uncertainty remains about the continuity of other operations.
• Hypothesis B: Tudou Guarantee is strategically pivoting away from fraud-related activities on Telegram to focus on other operations, such as gambling, that are less affected by sanctions. This is supported by the continued operation of its gambling activities and historical precedent of adaptation from Huione Guarantee.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the significant drop in wallet activity post-sanctions and arrests, indicating potential operational disruption. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include resurgence in fraud-related activities or new strategic alliances.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: Sanctions and law enforcement actions have a direct impact on Tudou’s operations; Tudou’s Telegram operations are critical to its overall business model; Prince Group’s leadership is pivotal to scam operations.
• Information Gaps: Detailed insights into Tudou’s internal decision-making processes and future strategic plans; comprehensive data on the full scope of Tudou’s non-Telegram operations.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in relying on Elliptic’s analysis; risk of deception by Tudou Guarantee to mislead law enforcement and competitors about its operational status.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The closure of Tudou Guarantee’s Telegram operations could lead to shifts in the global scam marketplace, affecting fraud networks and law enforcement strategies. This development may also prompt other scam networks to alter their operations in response to increased scrutiny.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased diplomatic tensions between countries involved in sanctioning and those hosting scam operations.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Possible reduction in fraud-related activities in the short term, but risk of displacement to other platforms or regions.
• Cyber / Information Space: Likely migration of scam activities to less monitored platforms, increasing challenges for cyber monitoring and enforcement.
• Economic / Social: Potential disruption in illicit financial flows, impacting local economies reliant on scam operations.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance monitoring of alternative platforms for scam activities; engage with international partners to coordinate enforcement actions.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures to counter evolving scam tactics; strengthen partnerships with private sector analytics firms for intelligence sharing.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Full shutdown of Tudou operations, leading to a significant decrease in global scam activities.
  • Worst: Tudou successfully pivots, maintaining or increasing its influence in the scam economy.
  • Most-Likely: Partial shutdown with continued operations in less scrutinized areas, requiring ongoing monitoring.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Chen Zhi – Chairman of Prince Group, described as the leader of the network.
• Elliptic – London-based blockchain analytics company providing insights into Tudou’s operations.
• Prince Group – Designated as a transnational criminal organization by the US and UK.

7. Thematic Tags

cybersecurity, fraud, sanctions, cybercrime, Southeast Asia, law enforcement, blockchain analytics, transnational crime

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Adversarial Threat Simulation: Model and simulate actions of cyber adversaries to anticipate vulnerabilities and improve resilience.
• Indicators Development: Detect and monitor behavioral or technical anomalies across systems for early threat detection.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Quantify uncertainty and predict cyberattack pathways using probabilistic inference.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map influence relationships to assess actor impact.

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