Published on: 2025-03-21

Intelligence Report: Tunisias president sacks third prime minister in less than two years – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The recent dismissal of Kamel Maddouri as Tunisia’s prime minister by Kais Saie marks the third such change in less than two years, highlighting ongoing political instability amid economic challenges. The appointment of Sara Zaafarani as the new prime minister comes as Tunisia grapples with a severe economic crisis and increasing social unrest. The strategic focus should be on stabilizing the political environment and addressing economic grievances to prevent further deterioration.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The dismissal of Kamel Maddouri is indicative of Kais Saie‘s dissatisfaction with the government’s performance in addressing the economic and political crises. The economic challenges include a severe public finance crisis, leading to shortages of essential commodities like sugar, rice, and coffee. The political landscape is further complicated by widespread criticism of Kais Saie‘s consolidation of power and the repression of opposition figures. The appointment of Sara Zaafarani, Tunisia’s second female prime minister, suggests an attempt to bring new perspectives to the government, although it remains to be seen if this will translate into effective governance.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing political instability poses significant risks to national security and regional stability. The economic crisis may exacerbate social unrest and lead to increased migration pressures, as thousands from sub-Saharan Africa attempt to reach Europe through Tunisia. The potential for civil unrest and clashes between migrants and local populations remains high. Additionally, the consolidation of power by Kais Saie could lead to further political repression and international criticism.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance economic reforms to address public finance issues and commodity shortages.
• Promote political dialogue to reduce tensions and foster a more inclusive governance structure.
• Strengthen border controls and collaborate with international partners to manage migration flows effectively.

Outlook:

In the best-case scenario, effective governance by Sara Zaafarani could stabilize the political environment and initiate economic recovery. In the worst-case scenario, continued political instability and economic decline could lead to widespread social unrest and increased migration. The most likely outcome is a gradual stabilization with persistent challenges in both political and economic spheres.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Kais Saie, Kamel Maddouri, and Sara Zaafarani. Their actions and decisions are central to the unfolding political and economic situation in Tunisia.