Published on: 2025-04-21

Intelligence Report: Turkey Plans Oil and Gas Exploration in Bulgaria, Libya, and Iraq – Financial Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Turkey is expanding its oil and gas exploration efforts in Bulgaria, Libya, and Iraq as part of a strategic initiative to reduce energy import reliance and enhance its role as a regional energy hub. This move involves potential agreements with foreign companies and increased exploration activities in the Black Sea and other regions. The implications of these actions could affect regional energy dynamics and geopolitical relations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Turkey’s strategic location as a bridge between Europe and the Middle East enhances its potential as an energy hub. Existing infrastructure and experience in energy exploration bolster its capabilities.
Weaknesses: Heavy reliance on energy imports makes Turkey vulnerable to external market fluctuations.
Opportunities: New exploration agreements could diversify energy sources and increase domestic production.
Threats: Regional instability and geopolitical tensions could disrupt exploration activities and agreements.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The interplay between Turkey’s exploration activities and regional geopolitical dynamics could lead to increased competition for resources. Potential regime changes or conflicts in neighboring countries like Libya and Iraq may impact Turkey’s energy strategies.

Scenario Generation

Best Case: Successful exploration leads to significant discoveries, reducing Turkey’s energy import dependency and strengthening its geopolitical influence.
Worst Case: Regional conflicts or diplomatic tensions halt exploration efforts, leading to economic losses and increased energy vulnerability.
Most Likely: Incremental progress in exploration with moderate discoveries, maintaining current energy import levels while slightly enhancing Turkey’s regional role.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

Turkey’s exploration plans could alter regional energy supply chains, potentially affecting EU energy security. The involvement of foreign companies may introduce economic dependencies or diplomatic leverage. Regional instability poses a risk to sustained exploration efforts.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance diplomatic engagements with regional partners to secure stable exploration environments.
• Invest in domestic energy infrastructure to support increased production capabilities.
• Monitor geopolitical developments closely to anticipate and mitigate potential disruptions.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Alparslan Bayraktar, Turkiye Petrolleri AO, Shell PLC.

6. Thematic Tags

(‘energy security, regional geopolitics, resource exploration, economic strategy’)

7. Methodological References

Structured techniques used in this report are based on best practices outlined in the ‘Structured Analytic Techniques Manual’.