Published on: 2026-02-05

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Intelligence Report: We will continue to disrupt the activities of Daesh’s networks UK statement at the UN Security Council

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The UK’s commitment to counter-terrorism efforts against Daesh, particularly in Syria, West Africa, and Afghanistan, is reinforced by recent developments and international collaboration. The statement underscores the importance of a coordinated global response to terrorism and the protection of human rights. The most likely hypothesis is that Daesh will attempt to exploit regional instability, but international efforts will mitigate their impact. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: Daesh is exploiting regional instability to expand its influence and operational capabilities, particularly in Syria and West Africa. This is supported by reports of fighters escaping detention and the group’s historical pattern of leveraging chaos. Key uncertainties include the actual scale of Daesh’s capabilities and the effectiveness of international countermeasures.
• Hypothesis B: International efforts, including those by the UK and its partners, are effectively containing Daesh’s expansion and reducing its threat level. This is supported by ongoing collaboration and strategic focus on counter-terrorism. However, the persistent threat in multiple regions and potential for propaganda exploitation contradict this view.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to recent reports of Daesh activity and regional instability. Indicators that could shift this judgment include successful international operations and improved regional stability.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: Daesh remains a cohesive and operationally capable entity; international collaboration will continue to be effective; regional instability will persist in the short term.
• Information Gaps: Precise details on Daesh’s current operational capabilities and leadership structure; effectiveness of local counter-terrorism measures.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential over-reliance on official statements and reports; risk of underestimating Daesh’s adaptability and propaganda capabilities.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

This development could lead to increased regional instability and humanitarian crises, potentially exacerbating global security challenges. The effectiveness of international counter-terrorism strategies will be crucial in mitigating these risks.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased international tensions if regional conflicts escalate or if counter-terrorism efforts are perceived as infringing on sovereignty.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Heightened threat levels in affected regions; possible increase in terrorist activities and recruitment.
• Cyber / Information Space: Increased use of digital platforms by Daesh for propaganda and recruitment; potential cyber threats against counter-terrorism infrastructure.
• Economic / Social: Displacement and humanitarian crises could strain regional economies and social cohesion, leading to further instability.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance intelligence sharing and coordination with international partners; increase monitoring of digital platforms for Daesh activity; support humanitarian efforts in affected regions.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Strengthen regional partnerships and capacity-building initiatives; invest in counter-radicalization programs; review and adapt counter-terrorism strategies.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Successful containment of Daesh with improved regional stability; triggered by effective international collaboration.
  • Worst: Significant expansion of Daesh influence and increased terrorist activities; triggered by failure of regional governance and international coordination.
  • Most-Likely: Continued sporadic Daesh activity with moderate international containment; triggered by ongoing regional instability and partial international success.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Chris Elmore MP, Minister for Multilateral, Human Rights, Latin America and the Caribbean
• Daesh (Islamic State)
• Global Coalition Against Daesh
• Islamic State Khorasan Province
• Regional organizations in West Africa and the Sahel

7. Thematic Tags

Counter-Terrorism, Daesh, international collaboration, regional instability, human rights, propaganda, humanitarian crisis

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• ACH 2.0: Reconstruct likely threat actor intentions via hypothesis testing and structured refutation.
• Indicators Development: Track radicalization signals and propaganda patterns to anticipate operational planning.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Analyze spread/adaptation of ideological narratives for recruitment/incitement signals.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map influence relationships to assess actor impact.

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