Published on: 2025-12-23

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Intelligence Report: The warring parties must end the bloodshed in Sudan UK statement at the UN Security Council

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The UK has condemned recent violence in Sudan, particularly targeting UN peacekeepers and civilians, and calls for an end to hostilities and a political resolution. The most likely hypothesis is that continued international pressure will lead to a temporary humanitarian pause but not a lasting peace, with moderate confidence. The conflict affects regional stability, humanitarian conditions, and international diplomatic relations.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: International diplomatic efforts, including sanctions and mediation, will lead to a temporary cessation of hostilities and a humanitarian pause. Supporting evidence includes ongoing international condemnation and sanctions, but the lack of a unified enforcement mechanism is a key uncertainty.
• Hypothesis B: The conflict will persist despite international pressure, with both sides continuing to engage in hostilities due to entrenched positions and external support. This is supported by the ongoing violence and lack of significant progress in negotiations.
• Assessment: Hypothesis B is currently better supported due to the entrenched nature of the conflict and limited effectiveness of international interventions so far. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include a significant diplomatic breakthrough or a change in external support dynamics.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The international community remains committed to a diplomatic resolution; both parties have the capability to sustain current levels of conflict; external actors do not significantly alter their support.
• Information Gaps: Detailed intelligence on the internal decision-making processes of the RSF and SAF; the extent of external support from regional actors.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in reporting from parties with vested interests; risk of misinformation or propaganda from the warring factions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The conflict in Sudan could escalate further, impacting regional stability and international diplomatic efforts. The humanitarian crisis may worsen, leading to increased displacement and regional refugee flows.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased regional instability and involvement of neighboring countries.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Risk of radicalization and recruitment by extremist groups exploiting the chaos.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased cyber operations targeting international diplomatic efforts or humanitarian organizations.
• Economic / Social: Deterioration of economic conditions and social cohesion within Sudan, with possible spillover effects in the region.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase diplomatic engagement with regional actors; enhance monitoring of humanitarian access and violations.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for humanitarian operations; strengthen partnerships with regional organizations for conflict resolution.
• Scenario Outlook: Best: A negotiated peace agreement; Worst: Escalation into a broader regional conflict; Most-Likely: Continued sporadic fighting with intermittent humanitarian pauses.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• James Kariuki, UK Chargé d’Affaires to the UN
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
• Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
• United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA)
• World Food Programme

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, Sudan conflict, international sanctions, humanitarian crisis, peacekeeping, regional stability, diplomatic efforts, ethnic violence

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Deconstruct and track propaganda or influence narratives.

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