Published on: 2026-02-07

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Intelligence Report: UN US condemn RSF drone strikes on aid deliveries in famine-hit Sudan

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have conducted drone strikes on humanitarian aid convoys in Sudan, resulting in significant civilian casualties and international condemnation. The attacks exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and threaten regional stability. The most likely hypothesis is that these strikes are part of a broader RSF strategy to destabilize government-controlled areas. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate due to limited direct evidence of RSF strategic intent.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The RSF is deliberately targeting humanitarian aid convoys to destabilize government-controlled areas and undermine international support for the Sudanese government. Supporting evidence includes the pattern of attacks on aid convoys and the strategic importance of the targeted routes. Key uncertainties include the RSF’s ultimate strategic objectives and internal decision-making processes.
• Hypothesis B: The drone strikes are a result of operational errors or rogue elements within the RSF acting independently. This hypothesis is less supported due to the systematic nature of the attacks and the lack of RSF disavowal of these actions.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the systematic targeting of aid convoys and the strategic implications of such actions. Indicators that could shift this judgment include credible reports of dissent within RSF ranks or evidence of miscommunication leading to unintended strikes.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The RSF has operational control over the drones used in the attacks; the RSF leadership is aware of and approves these actions; the international community will respond with diplomatic measures.
• Information Gaps: Detailed intelligence on RSF command and control structures; verification of RSF strategic objectives; real-time monitoring of RSF drone operations.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in reporting from affected humanitarian organizations; RSF may engage in information operations to obscure their involvement or intentions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

These developments could lead to increased international pressure on the RSF and potential sanctions, impacting the broader conflict dynamics in Sudan. The humanitarian crisis may worsen, leading to further displacement and regional instability.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased international diplomatic efforts to isolate the RSF and support the Sudanese government.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Escalation of conflict in the Kordofan region, with potential spillover into neighboring areas.
• Cyber / Information Space: Possible RSF use of information warfare to counter negative press and international condemnation.
• Economic / Social: Disruption of aid delivery could exacerbate famine conditions, leading to increased social unrest and economic instability.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase intelligence collection on RSF drone capabilities and command structures; enhance protection measures for aid convoys; engage with international partners to coordinate a response.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for humanitarian operations; strengthen partnerships with regional actors to contain RSF influence; consider capacity-building for Sudanese government forces.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best Case: International pressure leads to a ceasefire and negotiation, reducing violence.
  • Worst Case: RSF expands operations, further destabilizing the region and increasing civilian casualties.
  • Most Likely: Continued sporadic RSF attacks with limited international intervention, prolonging the conflict.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
• Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
• World Food Programme (WFP)
• UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
• US Senior Advisor for Arab and African Affairs Massad Boulos
• UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator Denise Brown
• Sudan Doctors Network

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, humanitarian crisis, drone warfare, Sudan conflict, international sanctions, RSF, aid disruption, regional stability

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map influence relationships to assess actor impact.

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