Published on: 2026-02-19

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Intelligence Report: Destruction by Sudan’s rebels in El Fasher bears ‘hallmarks of genocide’ UN experts

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan have been implicated in actions against non-Arab communities in El Fasher that exhibit characteristics of genocide, according to UN experts. The RSF’s campaign has resulted in significant civilian casualties and displacement. The most likely hypothesis is that these actions are part of a broader strategy to exert control over Darfur. This assessment is made with moderate confidence, given the available evidence and ongoing conflict dynamics.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The RSF’s actions in El Fasher are part of a deliberate genocidal campaign aimed at eliminating non-Arab communities, supported by evidence of ethnically targeted killings and public statements. However, the scale and intent behind these actions remain partially uncertain due to limited direct evidence of high-level directives.
• Hypothesis B: The RSF’s actions are primarily driven by military objectives to consolidate power in Darfur, with atrocities being a byproduct of broader conflict dynamics rather than a targeted genocidal intent. This is supported by the RSF’s ongoing conflict with the Sudanese military and historical patterns of violence in the region.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the systematic nature of the reported atrocities and the specific targeting of ethnic groups. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include new evidence of strategic directives from RSF leadership or changes in the conflict’s intensity and scope.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The RSF has operational autonomy in Darfur; the conflict is primarily ethnically motivated; UN reports are accurate and unbiased.
• Information Gaps: Lack of direct evidence linking RSF leadership to genocidal directives; unclear current status of displaced populations.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in UN reporting due to political pressures; RSF’s public denials may be attempts to manipulate international perception.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The situation in El Fasher could exacerbate regional instability and influence international diplomatic and humanitarian responses. The conflict may evolve into a prolonged humanitarian crisis with significant geopolitical ramifications.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased international intervention or sanctions; risk of regional spillover affecting neighboring countries.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Heightened risk of radicalization and recruitment by extremist groups exploiting the conflict.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for misinformation campaigns by involved parties to shape international narratives.
• Economic / Social: Disruption of local economies and social structures; increased burden on humanitarian resources.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase intelligence collection on RSF activities; engage with international partners to coordinate responses; enhance monitoring of humanitarian conditions in Darfur.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for affected communities; strengthen partnerships with regional actors to mitigate conflict spillover; support capacity-building for local governance structures.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best Case: De-escalation of conflict through diplomatic intervention; improved humanitarian access.
  • Worst Case: Escalation into broader regional conflict; significant increase in civilian casualties and displacement.
  • Most Likely: Continued localized conflict with intermittent international engagement; gradual deterioration of humanitarian conditions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (RSF Commander)
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
• UN Human Rights Office
• Sudanese Military
• Zaghawa and Fur communities

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, genocide, ethnic conflict, Darfur, humanitarian crisis, Rapid Support Forces, Sudan conflict, international intervention

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.

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