Published on: 2026-02-16

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Intelligence Report: With no disarmament agreement group says work to clear Gaza explosives hasn’t begun

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The United Nations Mine Action Service has not commenced comprehensive explosives clearance in Gaza due to the absence of a disarmament agreement between Israel and Hamas. This situation poses significant risks to civilian safety and environmental health. The most likely hypothesis is that clearance operations will remain stalled until a formal agreement is reached. Overall confidence in this judgment is moderate.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The delay in explosives clearance is primarily due to the lack of a disarmament agreement between Israel and Hamas. Supporting evidence includes statements from the UN Mine Action Service and restrictions imposed by both Israel and Hamas. Key uncertainties involve the timeline and conditions under which an agreement might be reached.
• Hypothesis B: The delay is due to logistical and operational challenges unrelated to the disarmament agreement, such as resource constraints and security concerns for clearance teams. While logistical issues are mentioned, the predominant narrative emphasizes the lack of an agreement as the main barrier.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to explicit references to the disarmament agreement as a prerequisite for clearance operations. Indicators that could shift this judgment include changes in political negotiations or new operational directives from involved parties.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The UN Mine Action Service requires a formal agreement to begin widespread clearance; Israel and Hamas have significant influence over clearance operations; current security conditions do not allow for safe clearance operations.
• Information Gaps: Specific terms of the proposed disarmament agreement; detailed operational capabilities and constraints of the UN Mine Action Service in Gaza; the extent of unexploded ordnance in civilian areas.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in reporting from involved parties; risk of manipulation in public statements by Israel or Hamas to influence international opinion or negotiations.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing delay in clearing explosives in Gaza could exacerbate humanitarian and environmental crises, potentially destabilizing the region further. The situation may also impact international diplomatic efforts and security dynamics.

• Political / Geopolitical: Prolonged negotiations may lead to increased tensions between Israel, Hamas, and international stakeholders, potentially affecting broader regional stability.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: The presence of unexploded ordnance poses immediate risks to civilian safety and could be exploited by militant groups.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for misinformation campaigns by involved parties to sway public opinion or influence negotiations.
• Economic / Social: Continued presence of explosives may hinder reconstruction efforts and exacerbate humanitarian conditions, impacting social cohesion and economic recovery.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase diplomatic efforts to facilitate a disarmament agreement; enhance monitoring of the humanitarian situation; prepare contingency plans for rapid clearance once conditions allow.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop partnerships with regional actors to support clearance operations; invest in capacity-building for local clearance teams; monitor geopolitical developments closely.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: A disarmament agreement is reached, allowing for rapid clearance and stabilization efforts.
  • Worst: Continued stalemate leads to increased casualties and regional instability.
  • Most-Likely: Protracted negotiations with intermittent clearance efforts in non-sensitive areas.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• United Nations Mine Action Service
• Julius Van Der Walt, Head of UN program in Gaza
• Israel (Government and Military)
• Hamas
• Palestinian armed groups

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, explosive ordnance disposal, disarmament, humanitarian aid, Gaza conflict, Israel-Hamas negotiations, regional stability, environmental impact

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Cognitive Bias Stress Test: Expose and correct potential biases in assessments through red-teaming and structured challenge.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Use probabilistic forecasting for conflict trajectories or escalation likelihood.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map relationships between state and non-state actors for impact estimation.

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