Published on: 2025-12-30

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Intelligence Report: UN finds Sudans el-Fasher a crime scene first access since RSF takeover

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The United Nations has identified el-Fasher in Sudan as a “crime scene” following the takeover by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), characterized by mass atrocities and ethnic violence. The situation poses significant humanitarian and security challenges, with severe implications for regional stability. The most likely hypothesis is that the RSF’s actions are part of a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing. Confidence in this assessment is moderate due to limited access and potential biases in reporting.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The RSF is conducting a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing in el-Fasher, as evidenced by reports of ethnically motivated killings and efforts to conceal mass graves. However, the extent of international verification remains limited, introducing uncertainty.
• Hypothesis B: The RSF’s actions are primarily driven by a strategic military objective to control key areas, with ethnic violence being a secondary consequence. This is supported by the strategic significance of el-Fasher and surrounding regions but lacks corroborative evidence of intent.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to consistent reports of ethnic violence and systematic concealment efforts. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include verified RSF communications or strategic documents indicating alternative motives.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The RSF has operational control over el-Fasher; ethnic violence is a deliberate tactic; international reports are accurate and unbiased.
• Information Gaps: Detailed RSF strategic objectives and internal communications; independent verification of reported atrocities; comprehensive demographic data post-takeover.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in UN and NGO reporting due to limited access and reliance on survivor testimonies; RSF efforts to manipulate information through media control or misinformation campaigns.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The RSF’s actions in el-Fasher could exacerbate regional instability and provoke international intervention, potentially altering power dynamics in Sudan and neighboring regions.

• Political / Geopolitical: Increased international pressure on Sudan; potential for sanctions or military intervention; destabilization of neighboring countries.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Heightened risk of insurgency or retaliatory attacks; potential for RSF to align with or against regional terrorist groups.
• Cyber / Information Space: Likely increase in propaganda and misinformation efforts by RSF; potential cyber operations targeting humanitarian organizations.
• Economic / Social: Severe humanitarian crisis with long-term impacts on regional economies; displacement exacerbating social tensions and resource scarcity.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase intelligence collection on RSF activities; enhance humanitarian aid delivery; engage in diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop partnerships with regional actors to stabilize the area; invest in resilience measures for displaced populations; monitor for signs of escalation or de-escalation.
• Scenario Outlook: Best: Ceasefire and international mediation lead to stabilization. Worst: Escalation of violence and regional conflict. Most-Likely: Continued low-intensity conflict with sporadic international attention.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
• United Nations (UN)
• Denise Brown, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Sudan
• UNICEF
• Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab
• Sudan Doctors Network

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, ethnic violence, humanitarian crisis, Sudan conflict, RSF, international intervention, regional stability, information warfare

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map influence relationships to assess actor impact.

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