Published on: 2025-07-16

Intelligence Report: Unanimously Adopting Resolution 2786 2025 Security Council Renews Mandate of United Nations Mission to Support Hudaydah Agreement – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The United Nations Security Council has unanimously adopted Resolution 2786, extending the mandate of the United Nations Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA) until January 2025. This decision underscores the international community’s commitment to Yemen’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The resolution aims to enhance the mission’s efficiency and coordination, with a focus on supporting humanitarian needs and promoting long-term stability in the region.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

The surface events involve the renewal of the UNMHA mandate, reflecting systemic structures aimed at maintaining peace and stability in Hudaydah. The underlying worldview emphasizes international cooperation and support for Yemen’s sovereignty. Myths surrounding the conflict include narratives of external influence and internal strife.

Cross-Impact Simulation

The extension of the UNMHA mandate may influence neighboring states by stabilizing regional security dynamics. Potential ripple effects include improved humanitarian conditions and reduced conflict spillover into adjacent areas.

Scenario Generation

Divergent narratives include scenarios where the UNMHA successfully facilitates a durable ceasefire, or conversely, where continued hostilities undermine peace efforts. These scenarios help identify plausible futures and prepare strategic responses.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The renewed mandate presents opportunities for enhanced stability in Hudaydah, yet risks persist due to potential non-cooperation by local factions. The threat of unprovoked attacks on civilian vessels remains a significant concern, with implications for regional maritime security. Systemic vulnerabilities include the possibility of mission inefficiencies and restricted movement affecting operational effectiveness.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance coordination with local stakeholders to ensure compliance with the Hudaydah Agreement.
• Implement robust security measures to protect UN personnel and assets.
• Develop contingency plans for potential mission adjustments to maintain operational efficiency.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Successful implementation of the Hudaydah Agreement leads to a nationwide ceasefire.
  • Worst Case: Continued hostilities result in mission setbacks and increased regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Gradual progress with intermittent challenges, requiring sustained international support.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Notable individuals include representatives from the United Kingdom, China, and the United States, who have expressed varying perspectives on the mission’s mandate and future adjustments.

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional stability, international cooperation, peacekeeping operations