Published on: 2025-09-07

Intelligence Report: Undersea cables cut in the Red Sea disrupting internet access in Asia and the Mideast – Tech Xplore

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the undersea cable cuts in the Red Sea were a result of deliberate sabotage, potentially linked to geopolitical tensions involving the Houthis and the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action includes enhancing surveillance and protective measures for critical infrastructure and engaging in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate regional tensions.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Deliberate Sabotage Hypothesis**: The cable cuts were intentional acts of sabotage by the Houthis or another actor to exert pressure in the context of regional conflicts, particularly the Israel-Hamas war. This is supported by past instances of Houthi aggression and their strategic interest in disrupting regional stability.

2. **Accidental Damage Hypothesis**: The cable cuts were accidental, possibly caused by maritime activities such as anchor dragging or ship collisions. This hypothesis considers the dense maritime traffic in the Red Sea and historical precedents of accidental cable damage.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The Deliberate Sabotage Hypothesis assumes a high level of coordination and capability by the Houthis or other actors to target undersea cables. The Accidental Damage Hypothesis assumes a lack of intent and focuses on environmental and navigational factors.
– **Red Flags**: The denial of responsibility by the Houthis could indicate deception, but it might also be genuine. The lack of immediate evidence or claims of responsibility raises questions about the true nature of the incident.
– **Blind Spots**: Limited information on the exact location and nature of the cable damage, and the absence of direct evidence linking any actor to the incident.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Economic Impact**: Disruption of internet services can have significant economic repercussions for affected countries, impacting businesses and communications.
– **Cybersecurity Risks**: Increased vulnerability of digital infrastructure may invite further cyber-attacks or exploitation by hostile entities.
– **Geopolitical Tensions**: The incident could exacerbate existing regional conflicts, particularly if linked to the Israel-Hamas war, potentially leading to further military engagements.
– **Psychological Impact**: Public perception of insecurity and vulnerability could be heightened, affecting regional stability.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance monitoring and protection of critical undersea infrastructure through international cooperation and technological investment.
• Engage in diplomatic dialogues to address and mitigate regional tensions, particularly involving the Houthis and other actors in the Red Sea region.
• Scenario Projections:
  • **Best Case**: Improved regional cooperation leads to enhanced security measures and prevention of future incidents.
  • **Worst Case**: Escalation of regional conflicts leads to further infrastructure attacks and broader geopolitical instability.
  • **Most Likely**: Continued sporadic disruptions with gradual improvements in security and diplomatic efforts.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Andrew Zinin
– Moammar Al Eryani
– Houthi rebels
– Microsoft
– Tata Communications
– Alcatel Submarine Networks

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus