Published on: 2025-08-06

Intelligence Report: UNHCR urges Pakistan to stop forced returns of Afghan refugees – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis suggests that Pakistan’s actions are driven by internal security concerns and socio-economic pressures, leading to the forced repatriation of Afghan refugees. This is supported by the ongoing illegal foreigner repatriation plan and the reported arrests of Afghans. Confidence Level: Moderate. Recommended action is to engage in diplomatic dialogue with Pakistan to address security concerns while advocating for the protection of refugees under international law.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Pakistan is prioritizing internal security and socio-economic stability over international humanitarian obligations, leading to the forced return of Afghan refugees. This is supported by the ongoing deportation plans and the arrests of Afghans, including those with Proof of Registration (PoR) cards.

2. **Hypothesis B**: Pakistan’s actions are a response to external pressures, possibly from regional actors or international stakeholders, to manage the refugee situation more aggressively. This could be inferred from the timing of the deportations and the lack of clear communication from Pakistan regarding these actions.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: Hypothesis A assumes that Pakistan’s primary motivation is internal security and economic stability. Hypothesis B assumes external pressures are significant enough to influence Pakistan’s policy decisions.
– **Red Flags**: The lack of transparency in Pakistan’s decision-making process and the absence of detailed reports on the influence of external actors are potential blind spots.
– **Inconsistent Data**: Reports of arrests of PoR cardholders contradict Pakistan’s historical stance on refugee protection.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Regional Stability**: Forced returns could exacerbate humanitarian crises in Afghanistan, increasing regional instability.
– **Geopolitical Tensions**: Strained relations between Pakistan and international humanitarian organizations could lead to broader geopolitical tensions.
– **Security Risks**: Increased refugee movements might heighten security risks, including potential radicalization or cross-border tensions.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic efforts with Pakistan to address security concerns while ensuring adherence to international refugee protection norms.
• Support initiatives that provide socio-economic aid to Pakistan to alleviate pressures from hosting refugees.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Pakistan halts forced returns, and international support helps stabilize the refugee situation.
  • Worst Case: Continued forced returns lead to a humanitarian crisis and increased regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Pakistan continues with deportations under international scrutiny, leading to diplomatic tensions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Babar Baloch (UNHCR spokesperson)

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional focus, humanitarian crisis, refugee protection, geopolitical tensions