Published on: 2026-02-12

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Intelligence Report: The US Air Force needs to buy hundreds of sixth-gen fighters and bombers to be ready for a China fight airpower experts say

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The US Air Force’s current procurement plans for sixth-generation fighters and bombers are insufficient for a potential conflict with China, according to airpower experts. The recommendation is to significantly increase the number of B-21 bombers and F-47 fighters to counter China’s advanced anti-access and area-denial capabilities. This assessment is made with moderate confidence, considering the current production and operational timelines of these aircraft.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The US Air Force needs to double its planned procurement of B-21 bombers and F-47 fighters to effectively counter China’s military capabilities. This is supported by the report’s argument that existing numbers are inadequate for penetrating Chinese defenses and maintaining operational tempo. Key uncertainties include production timelines and budget constraints.
• Hypothesis B: The current procurement plans are sufficient, and the US Air Force can rely on existing aircraft and other military capabilities to manage a conflict with China. This hypothesis is less supported due to the reported limitations of older aircraft in penetrating advanced Chinese defenses.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the detailed analysis of China’s defensive capabilities and the operational requirements for US forces. Indicators that could shift this judgment include advancements in aircraft production or changes in Chinese military posture.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The US Air Force will have sufficient budgetary support for increased procurement; China’s military capabilities will continue to advance; current aircraft production schedules remain on track.
• Information Gaps: Specific timelines for operational deployment of the B-21 and F-47; detailed intelligence on China’s latest military advancements.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias from the Mitchell Institute due to industry connections; possible underestimation of US existing capabilities.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The development of increased procurement for the US Air Force could significantly alter the strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region. It may lead to an arms race or heightened tensions with China.

• Political / Geopolitical: Increased US military presence could escalate tensions with China, potentially affecting diplomatic relations.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Enhanced US capabilities may deter Chinese aggression but could also provoke countermeasures.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased cyber espionage or misinformation campaigns by China to counter US advancements.
• Economic / Social: Budget reallocations for military spending could impact domestic economic priorities.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Conduct a comprehensive review of current procurement plans and budget allocations; enhance intelligence collection on Chinese military developments.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Strengthen alliances in the Asia-Pacific region; invest in cyber defenses and counter-information operations capabilities.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Successful increase in aircraft procurement deters Chinese aggression without escalation.
  • Worst: Procurement delays lead to a strategic disadvantage in a conflict scenario with China.
  • Most-Likely: Gradual increase in procurement aligns with strategic needs, maintaining a balance of power.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Heather Penney, former F-16 pilot
• Mark Gunzinger, retired Air Force colonel
• Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies
• Boeing
• Northrop Grumman
• Lockheed Martin

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, military procurement, airpower strategy, US-China relations, defense budget, aerospace industry, strategic deterrence, Asia-Pacific security

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map influence relationships to assess actor impact.

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