Published on: 2026-01-08

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Intelligence Report: Trump says the US shut off the lights in Venezuela’s capital using ‘certain expertise’ Here’s how it may have done it

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The reported power outage in Caracas, Venezuela, during a US military operation, may have been caused by a cyberattack or physical sabotage. The most likely hypothesis is a coordinated cyber operation, supported by US Cyber Command, to disable critical infrastructure. This assessment is made with moderate confidence due to limited direct evidence and reliance on official statements.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The power outage was caused by a US cyber operation targeting Venezuela’s critical infrastructure. This is supported by statements from US officials about Cyber Command’s involvement and the strategic advantage of non-kinetic capabilities. However, there is no hard evidence publicly available to confirm this.
• Hypothesis B: The power outage resulted from physical sabotage of power stations or infrastructure. This is a plausible explanation given the visible effects and the nature of military operations, but lacks specific supporting evidence in the available data.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the emphasis on cyber capabilities in official statements and the strategic benefits of such an approach. Indicators that could shift this judgment include credible reports of physical damage or new intelligence confirming cyber involvement.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The US has the capability and intent to conduct cyber operations against Venezuela; statements from US officials are accurate and not intended for deception; the power outage was directly linked to the US operation.
• Information Gaps: Lack of concrete evidence of the method used to cause the power outage; absence of independent verification of the outage’s scope and impact.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in US official statements aiming to project power or deter adversaries; risk of misinterpretation of military capabilities without corroborating evidence.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

This development could influence US-Venezuela relations and broader regional dynamics, potentially escalating tensions. It may also impact perceptions of US cyber capabilities and deterrence strategies.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased diplomatic tensions between the US and Venezuela, and possible reactions from allied or adversarial nations.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Changes in Venezuela’s threat perception and military posture; potential for retaliatory actions or increased security measures.
• Cyber / Information Space: Highlighting the role of cyber operations in modern warfare; potential for increased focus on cyber defense and infrastructure protection.
• Economic / Social: Disruption to Venezuelan infrastructure could exacerbate economic challenges and social unrest.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Monitor official communications for updates; assess potential retaliatory measures by Venezuela; enhance cyber defense readiness.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Strengthen partnerships with regional allies; invest in cyber capabilities and infrastructure resilience; engage in diplomatic efforts to manage tensions.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: De-escalation through diplomatic channels, with improved cyber defense cooperation.
  • Worst: Escalation of hostilities, leading to broader regional instability.
  • Most-Likely: Continued tension with sporadic cyber and diplomatic engagements, contingent on further developments.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Donald Trump – Former President of the United States
• Nicolás Maduro – President of Venezuela
• Gen. Dan Caine – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
• US Cyber Command
• US Space Command
• Louise Marie Hurel – Cybersecurity expert

7. Thematic Tags

cybersecurity, cyber operations, US-Venezuela relations, military strategy, power infrastructure, geopolitical tensions, cyber defense, information warfare

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Adversarial Threat Simulation: Model and simulate actions of cyber adversaries to anticipate vulnerabilities and improve resilience.
• Indicators Development: Detect and monitor behavioral or technical anomalies across systems for early threat detection.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Quantify uncertainty and predict cyberattack pathways using probabilistic inference.

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