Published on: 2025-11-19

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Intelligence Report: US-Russia Drafting Gaza-Inspired Peace Plan for Ukraine

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the proposed peace plan is a strategic maneuver by Russia to consolidate territorial gains and weaken Ukraine’s military capabilities under the guise of a peace initiative. Confidence Level: Moderate. Recommended action: The US should engage in diplomatic efforts to ensure any peace negotiations are balanced and uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The peace plan is a genuine attempt by Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine through diplomatic means, inspired by the Gaza peace framework.

Hypothesis 2: The peace plan is a strategic ploy by Russia to legitimize its territorial gains and weaken Ukraine’s military, using the guise of a peace initiative to gain international support and reduce Western influence in the region.

Hypothesis 2 is more likely due to the plan’s provisions, which heavily favor Russian interests, such as requiring Ukraine to significantly reduce its military capabilities and cede territory.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions: The plan assumes that Ukraine and its allies would accept significant military and territorial concessions. It also presumes that international actors would support a peace plan modeled after the Gaza framework.

Red Flags: The plan’s provisions align closely with Russian strategic objectives, suggesting potential deception. The involvement of individuals with ties to the Trump administration raises questions about the plan’s impartiality.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The plan could lead to a reduction in Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, increasing vulnerability to future aggression. It may also set a precedent for resolving conflicts through imposed settlements, undermining international norms. There is a risk of political and informational escalation if the plan is perceived as a Russian victory.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in multilateral diplomatic efforts to ensure any peace plan respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Increase support for Ukraine’s defense capabilities to counterbalance potential military reductions.
• Best-case scenario: A balanced peace agreement is reached, leading to a stable resolution of the conflict.
• Worst-case scenario: The plan is implemented, leading to further destabilization and increased Russian influence in Eastern Europe.
• Most-likely scenario: Prolonged negotiations with limited progress, as the plan faces resistance from Ukraine and its allies.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Kirill Dmitriev: Head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, reportedly involved in drafting the plan.

Steve Witkoff: Former Trump special envoy, involved in discussions about the plan.

Rustem Umerov: Ukraine’s national security adviser, involved in discussions with Witkoff.

Volodymyr Zelensky: President of Ukraine, key figure in peace negotiations.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan: President of Turkey, involved in discussions with Zelensky.

7. Thematic Tags

Regional Focus, Regional Focus: Eastern Europe, Russia-Ukraine Conflict, International Diplomacy

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.

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