Published on: 2025-05-29

Intelligence Report: US Suggests Syria-Israel Non-aggression Deal – International Business Times

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The United States has proposed a non-aggression agreement between Syria and Israel, aiming to stabilize regional tensions and prevent further conflict. This initiative is part of broader efforts to rebuild diplomatic relations with Syria following a prolonged period of isolation. Key recommendations include supporting diplomatic engagement and monitoring regional reactions to the proposed agreement.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

– **Surface Events**: The US envoy’s call for a non-aggression pact is a direct response to ongoing hostilities and airstrikes between Syria and Israel.
– **Systemic Structures**: The geopolitical landscape is influenced by power shifts in Syria, with new leadership seeking international legitimacy.
– **Worldviews**: Regional actors are driven by security concerns, with Israel aiming to prevent advanced weapons from reaching hostile entities.
– **Myths**: The narrative of inevitable conflict in the region is challenged by diplomatic overtures and potential agreements.

Cross-Impact Simulation

– The proposed deal could reduce military tensions but may face opposition from hardliners within both nations.
– Economic dependencies, such as energy agreements with regional players, could influence Syria’s willingness to engage in diplomacy.

Scenario Generation

– **Optimistic Scenario**: Successful agreement leads to reduced hostilities and improved regional stability.
– **Pessimistic Scenario**: Talks collapse, exacerbating tensions and leading to increased military engagements.
– **Neutral Scenario**: Prolonged negotiations with limited immediate impact on regional dynamics.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The proposed agreement could shift regional power dynamics, potentially reducing military confrontations. However, there is a risk of backlash from extremist groups and political factions opposed to normalization. Economic recovery efforts in Syria might be hindered if the agreement fails, affecting regional stability.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage diplomatic channels to facilitate dialogue between Syria and Israel, leveraging international partners to support negotiations.
• Monitor extremist group activities that may seek to disrupt peace efforts.
• Scenario-based Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful agreement leads to regional cooperation and economic recovery.
  • Worst Case: Breakdown in talks results in heightened conflict and instability.
  • Most Likely: Gradual progress with intermittent setbacks due to internal and external pressures.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

– Thomas Barrack
– Ahmed al Sharaa
– Donald Trump
– Assaad al Shaibani

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus