Published on: 2025-03-13

Intelligence Report: US-Ukraine ceasefire proposal What could Russia demand – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ceasefire proposal between Ukraine and Russia, facilitated by discussions in Jeddah, has led to speculation regarding Russia’s demands. Key demands include lifting sanctions and the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Kursk. The proposal’s acceptance remains uncertain, with Russia’s strategic goals potentially hindering progress. Immediate action is required to address humanitarian concerns and ensure regional stability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The ceasefire proposal suggests a temporary halt in hostilities, with a focus on humanitarian efforts, including prisoner exchanges and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children. Russia’s demands for lifting sanctions and security guarantees pose significant challenges. The proposal’s success hinges on Russia’s willingness to compromise on its strategic objectives, which include maintaining control over occupied territories and subjugating Ukraine.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The primary risks involve the potential for prolonged conflict if Russia rejects the proposal. This could lead to further regional instability and economic disruption. The involvement of European allies in the peace process is crucial for maintaining a united front. Failure to address Russia’s demands could result in escalated military actions and increased humanitarian crises.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to address Russia’s demands while ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Strengthen alliances with European partners to present a unified stance in negotiations.
• Enhance humanitarian aid and support for affected populations to mitigate the impact of ongoing hostilities.

Outlook:

In the best-case scenario, a temporary ceasefire is agreed upon, leading to further negotiations and potential resolution. The worst-case scenario involves a breakdown in talks, resulting in escalated conflict. The most likely outcome is a prolonged negotiation process with intermittent ceasefires and continued international pressure on Russia.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations involved in the ceasefire discussions:

• Mike Waltz
• Donald Trump
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy
• Vladimir Putin
• Dmitry Peskov
• Marina Miron
• Keir Gile
• Mikhail Alexseev
• Steve Witkoff
• Micheal Martin