Published on: 2025-05-18

Intelligence Report: We Can No Longer Afford By Travel Or Import To Empower Countries That Are Inimical To Our Interests And Positioned Against Us In Times Of Crisis Vice-President – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Vice-President of India, Jagdeep Dhankhar, emphasizes the need for economic nationalism and cautions against empowering countries that pose threats to national interests. The focus is on reducing dependencies through travel and imports, particularly with nations that may act adversarially during crises. This strategic stance is part of a broader effort to bolster national security and economic resilience.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Surface events include recent military operations and retaliatory actions against terrorist threats. Systemic structures involve trade dependencies and geopolitical alignments. The worldview is shaped by a commitment to nationalism and self-reliance. Myths revolve around the narrative of a strong, independent nation capable of defending its interests.

Cross-Impact Simulation

The reduction in imports from adversarial countries could lead to economic adjustments domestically and shifts in regional trade dynamics. Potential conflicts may arise if neighboring states perceive these actions as aggressive or protectionist.

Scenario Generation

Possible futures include a strengthened domestic economy with reduced foreign dependencies, or conversely, strained international relations and economic challenges if alternative trade partners are not secured.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The emphasis on economic nationalism may lead to short-term economic disruptions as supply chains adjust. Long-term risks include potential isolation or retaliatory measures from affected countries. Cybersecurity threats may increase as adversarial states seek to undermine these efforts.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Develop alternative trade partnerships to mitigate the impact of reduced imports from adversarial nations.
• Enhance domestic production capabilities to support self-reliance goals.
• Implement robust cybersecurity measures to protect against potential retaliatory cyber-attacks.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Successful transition to a more self-reliant economy with minimal disruption.
  • Worst Case: Economic strain due to insufficient alternative trade partners and increased geopolitical tensions.
  • Most Likely: Gradual adjustment with some initial economic challenges, leading to a more balanced trade approach.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Jagdeep Dhankhar, Narendra Modi

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus