Published on: 2025-10-22

Intelligence Report: ‘We fear for our souls’ – farmers on the frontline against Boko Haram – BBC News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The strategic judgment is that the Nigerian government’s current efforts to protect farmers from Boko Haram and ISWAP are insufficient, potentially exacerbating food insecurity and regional instability. The hypothesis that the government’s security measures are inadequate is better supported. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Enhance security measures and expand the Agro Ranger scheme to ensure farmer safety and stabilize food production.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The Nigerian government’s security measures, including the Agro Ranger scheme, are effectively mitigating the threat posed by Boko Haram and ISWAP to farmers.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The security measures are inadequate, and farmers remain at significant risk from Boko Haram and ISWAP, leading to increased food insecurity and potential regional destabilization.

Using Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), Hypothesis B is better supported. The evidence of ongoing attacks, farmer abductions, and increased civilian fatalities suggests that current security measures are insufficient.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that the Agro Ranger scheme is fully operational and adequately resourced. There is also an assumption that the government has the capacity to expand this program effectively.
– **Red Flags**: Reports of continued farmer abductions and attacks indicate a gap between policy and implementation. The lack of comprehensive data on the effectiveness of current security measures is a significant blind spot.
– **Potential Bias**: There may be an over-reliance on government reports and underreporting of incidents in remote areas.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Economic Impact**: Continued insecurity could severely disrupt agricultural production, exacerbating food insecurity in Nigeria’s northeast.
– **Geopolitical Risks**: Persistent instability may lead to increased displacement and strain on neighboring regions, potentially inviting international intervention.
– **Psychological Impact**: Ongoing threats may erode public confidence in government security efforts, leading to social unrest.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• **Enhance Security Measures**: Increase funding and resources for the Agro Ranger scheme and expand its coverage to more vulnerable areas.
• **Community Engagement**: Involve local communities in security planning to improve intelligence gathering and trust in government efforts.
• **Scenario Projections**:
  • **Best Case**: Successful expansion of security measures leads to reduced attacks and stabilization of food production.
  • **Worst Case**: Continued attacks lead to severe food shortages and regional destabilization.
  • **Most Likely**: Gradual improvement in security with sporadic attacks continuing, requiring ongoing adjustments to security strategies.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Aisha Isa: A farmer expressing fear for safety.
– Mustapha Musa: A farmer concerned about security.
– Abba Mustapha Muhammed: A victim of kidnapping by insurgents.
– Adam Goni: Chair of the Borno branch of the National Association of Sorghum Producers and Processors.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus, food security, insurgency