Published on: 2025-11-14

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Intelligence Report: What do international voters dream of I think Lynetteholmen is bad for the environment – Politiken.dk

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

With moderate confidence, it is assessed that international voters in Copenhagen are primarily concerned with environmental sustainability and affordable housing. The proposed Lynetteholmen project is seen as detrimental to these priorities. It is recommended that policymakers engage with international residents to address these concerns and consider alternative solutions to the housing crisis that align with environmental goals.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: International voters in Copenhagen prioritize environmental sustainability and oppose the Lynetteholmen project due to its perceived negative impact on the environment and failure to address housing affordability.

Hypothesis 2: International voters are primarily concerned with integration and representation in the political process, with environmental and housing issues being secondary concerns.

Assessment: Hypothesis 1 is more strongly supported by the evidence, as multiple international voters explicitly mention environmental concerns and housing affordability as key issues. The focus on Lynetteholmen’s environmental impact and the housing crisis suggests these are primary concerns.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions: It is assumed that the sample of international voters interviewed is representative of the broader international community in Copenhagen. Additionally, it is assumed that the concerns expressed are genuine and not influenced by external political agendas.

Red Flags: The possibility of selection bias in the sample of voters interviewed. There is also a risk of misinterpretation or oversimplification of complex issues such as urban development and environmental impact.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The opposition to the Lynetteholmen project could lead to increased political activism among international voters, potentially influencing municipal election outcomes. If concerns are not addressed, there may be a risk of social fragmentation or decreased trust in local governance. Additionally, failure to address housing affordability could exacerbate economic disparities and social tensions.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

Engage with international communities to better understand and address their concerns regarding environmental sustainability and housing affordability.
Consider alternative urban development projects that align with environmental goals and address the housing crisis.
Enhance communication and integration efforts to ensure international voters feel represented and included in the political process.
Best-case scenario: Policymakers successfully address international voters’ concerns, leading to increased social cohesion and sustainable urban development.
Worst-case scenario: Ignoring these concerns results in political unrest and social fragmentation.
Most-likely scenario: Incremental policy adjustments are made to address environmental and housing issues, with ongoing dialogue between international communities and policymakers.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Sara Gonzalez, Ricardo Fris, Stefanee Madsen – International voters expressing concerns about environmental and housing issues in Copenhagen.

7. Thematic Tags

Regional Focus: Copenhagen, Denmark

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.
Narrative Pattern Analysis: Deconstruct and track propaganda or influence narratives.

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