Published on: 2025-11-18

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Intelligence Report: International Stabilisation Force for Gaza

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the creation of an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) for Gaza is primarily a strategic move to stabilize the region and reduce Hamas’s military influence, albeit with significant geopolitical complexities. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Engage in diplomatic efforts to ensure broad international support and address Palestinian concerns to enhance the legitimacy and effectiveness of the ISF.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The ISF is intended to stabilize Gaza by reducing Hamas’s military capabilities and facilitating a peaceful transition to a more internationally acceptable governance structure.

Hypothesis 2: The ISF is a geopolitical maneuver by the US and its allies to exert control over Gaza, marginalize Hamas, and strengthen Israel’s security position, potentially at the expense of Palestinian sovereignty.

Hypothesis 1 is more likely due to the inclusion of multinational forces and the stated objectives of demilitarization and humanitarian support. However, the lack of Palestinian participation and the abstention of Russia and China suggest underlying geopolitical motives aligning with Hypothesis 2.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions: The ISF will operate with impartiality and effectiveness. The Palestinian Authority will cooperate with the ISF. Regional actors will contribute troops and resources.

Red Flags: Hamas’s outright rejection of the resolution. The abstention of Russia and China, indicating potential geopolitical friction. The absence of a clear role for the UN and Palestinian input in the ISF’s formation.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The deployment of the ISF could lead to increased tensions between Hamas and the international community, potentially escalating into further conflict. There is a risk of cyber and informational warfare by opposing factions to undermine the ISF’s legitimacy. Economically, the region may face instability if humanitarian aid is disrupted. Politically, the ISF’s success or failure could influence broader Middle Eastern alliances and power dynamics.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic dialogue with Palestinian representatives to address their concerns and increase the ISF’s legitimacy.
• Coordinate with regional powers to ensure a balanced and effective ISF deployment.
• Best-case scenario: Successful stabilization of Gaza, leading to improved security and humanitarian conditions.
• Worst-case scenario: Escalation of conflict with Hamas, leading to broader regional instability.
• Most-likely scenario: Initial resistance and challenges, followed by gradual stabilization with international support.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Donald Trump: Former US President, initiator of the resolution.

Benjamin Netanyahu: Israeli Prime Minister, advocating for Hamas disarmament.

Anwar Gargash: Senior Emirati official, indicating UAE’s potential participation.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Turkish President, expressing readiness to support Gaza.

7. Thematic Tags

Regional Focus, Middle East, Gaza, International Relations, Peacekeeping, Geopolitics

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.

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