Published on: 2025-03-16

Intelligence Report: What We Know About Trumps TikTok Deal As Reports Suggest Oracle Could Take Lead Role – Forbes

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The U.S. government is negotiating a potential deal involving TikTok, with Oracle emerging as a leading contender to oversee the platform’s operations. This development is part of efforts to address national security concerns related to TikTok’s Chinese ownership. The final agreement is expected to be reached by April, although significant challenges remain, including the need for approval from the Chinese government.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The negotiation surrounding TikTok involves complex geopolitical and economic considerations. The U.S. administration’s primary concern is the potential for Chinese government access to TikTok user data. Oracle’s role would involve ensuring data security and maintaining a separation from ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company. The involvement of other potential suitors, such as Perplexity AI and a consortium led by Frank McCourt, indicates a competitive landscape for control over TikTok’s U.S. operations.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The strategic risks associated with the TikTok deal include:

• National security risks due to potential data access by the Chinese government.
• Economic implications for U.S.-China relations, particularly if the deal is perceived as unfavorable by either side.
• Potential regulatory challenges and legal hurdles in both the U.S. and China.

The outcome of this negotiation could set a precedent for future technology and data governance agreements between the U.S. and foreign entities.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Ensure robust data protection measures are included in any agreement with Oracle or other parties.
• Engage in diplomatic discussions with China to facilitate a mutually acceptable resolution.
• Consider regulatory frameworks that address broader concerns of foreign ownership in technology sectors.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: A successful agreement is reached with Oracle, addressing national security concerns and maintaining TikTok’s operations in the U.S.

Worst-case scenario: The deal collapses due to regulatory or diplomatic hurdles, leading to a potential ban on TikTok in the U.S.

Most likely outcome: A compromise is reached, allowing TikTok to continue operating under stringent data security measures, with Oracle playing a key oversight role.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations involved in the TikTok negotiations:

• Donald Trump
• JD Vance
• Oracle
• ByteDance
• Perplexity AI
• Frank McCourt
• Jesse Tinsley
• Reid Rasner