Published on: 2025-10-31

Intelligence Report: Who are the actors in Sudan’s devastating war – RTE

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The conflict in Sudan involves complex internal and external dynamics, with significant foreign influence. The most supported hypothesis is that external powers are exacerbating the conflict by providing covert support to both the Sudanese army and the RSF. Confidence Level: Moderate. Recommended action is to increase diplomatic efforts to curb foreign interference and promote dialogue between the conflicting parties.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The conflict in Sudan is primarily driven by internal power struggles between the Sudanese army and the RSF, with foreign powers playing a secondary role.

Hypothesis 2: External powers are significantly influencing the conflict by providing support to both sides, thereby prolonging and intensifying the war.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 2 is better supported due to multiple reports of foreign involvement, such as accusations against Egypt, UAE, and Libya supporting different factions. The consistent denial by these countries suggests a pattern of covert operations.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– Assumption: Foreign powers have strategic interests in Sudan that motivate their involvement.
– Red Flag: Consistent denial of involvement by accused countries despite evidence suggesting otherwise.
– Blind Spot: Lack of concrete evidence linking foreign support directly to specific military outcomes.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict risks further destabilizing the region, potentially leading to increased refugee flows and humanitarian crises. The involvement of foreign powers could escalate into a broader regional conflict. Economic impacts include disrupted trade routes and increased military spending.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in multilateral diplomatic efforts to pressure foreign powers to cease support for conflicting parties.
• Support initiatives for a ceasefire and peace talks between the Sudanese army and RSF.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful peace talks lead to a stable transitional government.
  • Worst Case: Escalation into a regional conflict involving neighboring countries.
  • Most Likely: Prolonged conflict with intermittent ceasefires and continued foreign interference.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Abdel Fattah al-Burhan
– Mohamed Hamdan Daglo
– Khalifa Haftar
– Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional focus, foreign interference, conflict resolution