Published on: 2025-03-27

Intelligence Report: Why Climate Change is a National Security Threat – Time

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a critical national security threat. It exacerbates existing global tensions, contributes to mass migration, and strains military resources. The intelligence community acknowledges these risks, emphasizing the need for preparedness against future conflicts and competition driven by climate-related factors.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

Climate change has been identified as a destabilizing force both domestically and internationally. The intelligence community’s annual threat assessments have historically included climate change as a significant concern, highlighting its potential to aggravate existing issues such as extremism and terrorism. Key academic studies and reports, including those from the Naval War College, support these findings, indicating that environmental stressors can lead to increased political and social tensions.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The destabilizing impact of climate change is evident in areas such as food security, migration, and regional stability. Extreme weather events and rising sea levels contribute to internal displacement and cross-border migration, leading to heightened tensions and potential conflicts. Domestically, climate change challenges military infrastructure and readiness, requiring adaptation to withstand extreme weather and support disaster response efforts.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance infrastructure resilience to withstand extreme weather events through technological and regulatory measures.
• Strengthen international cooperation to address climate-induced migration and related security challenges.
• Integrate climate risk assessments into national security planning and military preparedness strategies.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Proactive measures and international collaboration mitigate the worst impacts of climate change, stabilizing vulnerable regions and reducing security threats.

Worst-case scenario: Failure to address climate risks leads to increased conflicts, mass migrations, and significant strain on national and global security resources.

Most likely outcome: Continued recognition of climate change as a security threat prompts gradual policy adjustments and increased focus on resilience and adaptation.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Tulsi Gabbard, Mark Nevitt, Scott Moore, and Karen Seto. These individuals contribute to the discourse on climate change and national security through their research and public statements.