Published on: 2025-09-01

Intelligence Report: Why do shallow earthquakes cause more destruction than deep ones – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Shallow earthquakes cause more destruction than deep ones primarily due to their proximity to the Earth’s surface, which results in stronger ground shaking and greater damage to structures. The hypothesis that shallow earthquakes are more destructive due to energy dissipation is better supported by the data. Confidence Level: High. Recommended action includes enhancing building codes and emergency preparedness in regions prone to shallow earthquakes.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Shallow earthquakes cause more destruction because their energy is released closer to the Earth’s surface, resulting in stronger shaking and more damage to structures.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The destruction caused by shallow earthquakes is due to the geological characteristics of the region, such as tectonic plate interactions and local soil conditions, which amplify the impact.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported as it aligns with the general understanding of seismic energy dissipation and the observed impact of recent earthquakes in regions like Afghanistan. Hypothesis B, while plausible, lacks specific evidence linking geological characteristics to increased destruction in this context.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that the proximity of the earthquake’s epicenter to the surface is the primary factor in the destruction caused. Another assumption is that all shallow earthquakes have similar impacts regardless of local geological conditions.
– **Red Flags**: The lack of detailed analysis on the role of local soil conditions and building structures in amplifying earthquake damage is a potential blind spot.
– **Inconsistent Data**: The report does not provide comparative data on the impact of deep earthquakes in similar regions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The increased destruction from shallow earthquakes poses significant risks to infrastructure and human life, particularly in densely populated areas. This can lead to economic instability, humanitarian crises, and increased pressure on emergency services. There is also a potential for geopolitical tensions if cross-border regions are affected, as seen in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance building codes to withstand stronger ground shaking in regions prone to shallow earthquakes.
• Invest in early warning systems and public education campaigns to improve emergency preparedness.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Improved infrastructure and preparedness minimize casualties and economic impact.
  • Worst Case: A major shallow earthquake in a densely populated area leads to significant loss of life and economic disruption.
  • Most Likely: Continued moderate earthquakes with localized damage and ongoing need for humanitarian aid.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

No specific individuals are mentioned in the source text. Relevant entities include the United States Geological Survey and regional seismic monitoring organizations.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, disaster preparedness, regional stability, infrastructure resilience