Published on: 2025-08-25

Intelligence Report: Why Ethiopias Tigray could be on the brink of another conflict – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that tensions between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian federal government, exacerbated by internal TPLF divisions and Eritrean involvement, could lead to renewed conflict in Tigray. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Diplomatic engagement to reinforce the Pretoria Peace Agreement and address internal TPLF divisions.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. Renewed conflict in Tigray is imminent due to unresolved tensions between the TPLF and the Ethiopian federal government, compounded by Eritrean interests and internal TPLF power struggles.
2. Despite tensions, the situation will stabilize as both parties recognize the high cost of renewed conflict and prioritize diplomatic solutions, supported by international pressure and mediation.

Structured Analytic Technique: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0 was used, weighing evidence such as the recent coup attempt within the TPLF, Eritrean military posturing, and the fragile peace agreement. The first hypothesis is better supported due to ongoing military preparations and political instability.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– Assumption: The TPLF’s internal divisions are significant enough to destabilize the peace process.
– Red Flag: Reports of Eritrean military involvement may be exaggerated or misinterpreted.
– Blind Spot: The potential role of other regional actors, such as Sudan, is not fully explored.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

Renewed conflict could destabilize the Horn of Africa, affecting regional trade routes and security. There is a risk of humanitarian crises, with potential for mass displacement and famine. The conflict could also strain Ethiopia’s relations with international partners and impact its aviation sector.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to reinforce the Pretoria Peace Agreement, focusing on internal TPLF reconciliation.
• Monitor Eritrean military activities and regional alliances to prevent escalation.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best: Successful mediation leads to a durable peace settlement.
  • Worst: Full-scale conflict resumes, leading to regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Continued tensions with sporadic violence, but no full-scale war.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Abiy Ahmed
– Getachew Reda
– Debretsion Gebremichael
– Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)
– Eritrean military forces

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional focus, conflict resolution, humanitarian crisis