Published on: 2025-04-11

Intelligence Report: Why fears are growing of a return of civil war to South Sudan – BBC News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Rising tensions in South Sudan, marked by the arrest of Riek Machar on March 26, 2023, have heightened concerns of a potential return to civil war. The fragile 2018 peace agreement is at risk of collapse, threatening national stability and regional security. Immediate diplomatic interventions and strategic planning are recommended to prevent escalation.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The arrest of Riek Machar has exacerbated existing tensions in South Sudan. The conflict traces back to unresolved issues from the 2018 peace agreement, particularly the integration of rebel forces into a unified national army and the establishment of a judicial mechanism to address past violence. The recent clashes involving the White Army militia and the South Sudanese army indicate a resurgence of ethnic and political divisions. The failure to implement key aspects of the peace deal, such as elections and constitutional reforms, further destabilizes the situation.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The potential collapse of the 2018 peace agreement poses significant risks to national security and regional stability. Renewed conflict could lead to increased displacement, humanitarian crises, and economic disruption. The involvement of militias and unresolved ethnic tensions may further complicate peace efforts. The international community’s credibility is at stake if the peace process fails, potentially affecting diplomatic relations and aid efforts.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to mediate between Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, emphasizing the importance of adhering to the 2018 peace agreement.
• Support initiatives to expedite the integration of rebel forces into the national army and the establishment of a judicial mechanism for accountability.
• Encourage regional organizations to play a more active role in monitoring and facilitating the peace process.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Diplomatic interventions succeed, leading to a recommitment to the peace agreement and stabilization of the political landscape.
Worst-case scenario: Escalation of violence results in a full-scale civil war, with severe humanitarian and economic consequences.
Most likely scenario: Continued tensions with sporadic violence, requiring sustained international engagement to prevent further deterioration.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations but does not provide any roles or affiliations. Key individuals include Riek Machar and Salva Kiir. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In Opposition (SPLM-IO) is a critical entity in the ongoing tensions.