Published on: 2025-08-19

Intelligence Report: Why India tops the list of abandoned sailors – BBC News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

India’s prominence in the list of abandoned sailors is primarily due to systemic issues in the global maritime industry, exacerbated by weak regulatory oversight and the use of flags of convenience. The most supported hypothesis is that the lack of stringent international enforcement mechanisms allows shipowners to evade responsibilities. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action includes strengthening international maritime regulations and improving oversight mechanisms.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The high number of abandoned Indian sailors is due to India’s large supply of seafarers, making them statistically more likely to be affected by abandonment issues.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The abandonment of Indian sailors is primarily driven by systemic exploitation within the maritime industry, facilitated by weak regulatory frameworks and the use of flags of convenience.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, Hypothesis B is better supported. The evidence points to systemic issues such as the use of flags of convenience and inadequate enforcement of maritime labor conventions, which are more consistent with the observed patterns of abandonment.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that the data on abandoned sailors is comprehensive and accurately reflects the situation. There is an assumption that regulatory bodies are aware of these issues but lack the capacity to enforce changes.
– **Red Flags**: The lack of response from shipowners and maritime authorities suggests potential deception or neglect. The absence of detailed data on the actions taken by Indian maritime regulators is a critical blind spot.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The systemic exploitation of seafarers poses significant risks to global maritime operations and international trade. The continued use of flags of convenience could lead to increased incidents of abandonment, affecting global supply chains. Geopolitically, this could strain relations between countries with large seafaring populations and those where these issues are prevalent.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Strengthen international maritime regulations to ensure better enforcement of labor standards.
• Encourage countries to improve oversight of recruitment and placement agencies.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: International cooperation leads to robust enforcement mechanisms, reducing abandonment cases.
  • Worst Case: Continued regulatory failures result in increased abandonment, disrupting global trade.
  • Most Likely: Incremental improvements in oversight reduce but do not eliminate abandonment incidents.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Manas Kumar: Chief Officer of the vessel Anka.
– Mohammad Gulam Ansari: Seafarer assisting in repatriation efforts.
– Amitabh Chaudhary: Captain of the Stratos vessel.

7. Thematic Tags

maritime security, regulatory oversight, international trade, labor rights