Published on: 2025-07-11

Intelligence Report: Why Iran Needs Its Own Deng Xiaoping to Survive – The National Interest

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Iran faces significant geopolitical and economic challenges that threaten its stability. To ensure its survival, Iran may need to adopt a diplomatic and economic strategy similar to China’s under Deng Xiaoping, focusing on reducing confrontations and engaging with Western nations. This shift could alleviate economic sanctions and foster development, but it requires a fundamental change in Iran’s current revolutionary policies.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

ACH 2.0

Iran’s current leadership appears committed to maintaining its revolutionary stance, which includes supporting groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and pursuing nuclear capabilities. However, this approach has not yielded the desired strategic outcomes and has led to increased isolation.

Indicators Development

Monitoring shifts in Iran’s diplomatic engagements and economic policies could indicate a strategic pivot. Increased dialogue with Western nations or changes in rhetoric towards Israel might signal a new direction.

Narrative Pattern Analysis

The ideological narrative of resistance and confrontation has been central to Iran’s foreign policy. A shift towards a narrative of economic development and international cooperation would mark a significant change.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

Continuing the current policy trajectory risks further economic decline and potential military confrontations, particularly with Israel. A strategic pivot could mitigate these risks but may face internal resistance from hardliners. The potential for regional destabilization remains if Iran’s policies do not adapt.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage diplomatic engagement with Iran to explore potential policy shifts and offer incentives for cooperation, such as phased sanction relief.
• Monitor internal political dynamics within Iran for signs of leadership changes or policy shifts.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Iran adopts a more diplomatic approach, leading to economic recovery and regional stability.
  • Worst Case: Continued confrontation leads to military conflict and further economic deterioration.
  • Most Likely: Incremental changes with ongoing internal and external tensions.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Ali Khamenei

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, geopolitical strategy, economic development, regional stability