Published on: 2025-06-30

Intelligence Report: Why is Ukraine withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty banning landmines – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Ukraine’s decision to withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans antipersonnel landmines, is primarily driven by the need to enhance its defensive capabilities against Russian military aggression. The strategic use of landmines is viewed as critical for Ukraine to establish deep defensive lines and counteract Russian advances. This move reflects a broader regional trend, with neighboring countries also reconsidering their treaty commitments due to heightened security concerns.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

– **Surface Events**: Ukraine’s withdrawal announcement and the ongoing conflict with Russia.
– **Systemic Structures**: The military strategies employed by both Ukraine and Russia, including the use of landmines.
– **Worldviews**: The perception of landmines as necessary defensive tools versus their humanitarian impact.
– **Myths**: The belief in landmines as a decisive factor in military success.

Cross-Impact Simulation

– **Regional Security Dynamics**: Ukraine’s withdrawal may influence other countries in the region to reconsider their treaty obligations, potentially leading to an arms race in landmine deployment.
– **Economic Dependencies**: Increased military expenditures may strain Ukraine’s economy, affecting regional economic stability.

Scenario Generation

– **Best Case**: Ukraine successfully deters Russian advances, stabilizing the front lines.
– **Worst Case**: Escalation of conflict with increased civilian casualties due to landmine use.
– **Most Likely**: Continued military stalemate with periodic escalations.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Political**: Potential diplomatic fallout with countries advocating for the Ottawa Treaty.
– **Military**: Increased reliance on landmines could lead to long-term challenges in post-conflict demining efforts.
– **Economic**: Heightened defense spending may divert resources from essential civilian needs.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage diplomatic engagement with treaty signatories to address security concerns while minimizing humanitarian risks.
• Develop a comprehensive demining strategy to mitigate long-term impacts.
• Scenario-based projections suggest maintaining a balanced approach to defense and diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

– Volodymyr Zelenskyy
– Ivan Popov
– Lloyd Austin
– Jody Williams

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, military strategy, regional security, humanitarian impact