Published on: 2025-05-29

Intelligence Report: Why Taiwan fears outside world will abandon it if China invades – New York Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Taiwan is concerned about the potential lack of international support in the event of a Chinese invasion. This report identifies the strategic vulnerabilities and geopolitical dynamics influencing Taiwan’s security posture. Key recommendations include strengthening diplomatic ties and enhancing defense capabilities to deter aggression.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

– **Surface Events**: Increasing military exercises by China around Taiwan.
– **Systemic Structures**: Limited international recognition of Taiwan’s sovereignty.
– **Worldviews**: Global skepticism towards China-Russia alignment.
– **Myths**: Perception of inevitable Chinese control over Taiwan.

Cross-Impact Simulation

– Potential ripple effects include regional instability in East Asia and disruptions in global supply chains.
– Economic dependencies on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry could influence international responses.

Scenario Generation

– **Best Case**: Strengthened international alliances deter Chinese aggression.
– **Worst Case**: A swift Chinese invasion with minimal global intervention.
– **Most Likely**: Prolonged tensions with intermittent diplomatic engagements.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Political**: Erosion of Taiwan’s diplomatic standing if global powers prioritize economic ties with China.
– **Military**: Increased risk of miscalculation leading to conflict escalation.
– **Economic**: Potential global semiconductor supply disruptions.
– **Cyber**: Heightened cyber threats targeting Taiwan’s critical infrastructure.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance diplomatic efforts with key global players to secure commitments for support.
• Invest in advanced defense systems and cybersecurity measures to deter potential threats.
• Develop contingency plans for economic resilience in the face of potential blockades or sanctions.
• Scenario-based projections suggest prioritizing regional alliances to counterbalance Chinese influence.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

– Liang Wen-chieh
– Xi Jinping
– Kuan-chen Lee
– Ming-shih Shen
– Oleh Shyriaiev

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional stability, geopolitical dynamics, defense strategy