Published on: 2025-11-01

Intelligence Report: Why the Indian passport is falling in global ranking – BBC News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The decline in the Indian passport’s global ranking is primarily attributed to geopolitical factors and internal political dynamics. The most supported hypothesis suggests that India’s international image and political stability are key factors affecting its passport strength. Confidence Level: Moderate. Recommended action includes diplomatic engagement to enhance bilateral relations and address internal political issues that impact international perceptions.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The decline in ranking is due to geopolitical shifts and India’s perceived political instability, which affects its global image and soft power.

Hypothesis 2: The decline is primarily due to increased global competition in mobility partnerships, with other countries forming more strategic alliances that enhance their citizens’ travel freedoms.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 1 is better supported by evidence of India’s internal political challenges and historical shifts in visa policies related to political movements. Hypothesis 2 is less supported as it does not fully account for the specific decline in India’s ranking compared to other nations.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions include the belief that political stability directly influences passport strength and that international perceptions are primarily shaped by geopolitical actions. Red flags include potential bias in attributing passport strength solely to political factors without considering economic or cultural dimensions. Missing data on specific bilateral negotiations or agreements that could influence rankings is a concern.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The decline in passport strength may lead to reduced global mobility for Indian citizens, impacting business and educational opportunities. Geopolitically, this could strain India’s diplomatic relations and influence. A potential escalation scenario includes increased scrutiny and visa restrictions from Western countries, further isolating India on the global stage.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to improve bilateral relations, focusing on visa agreements and partnerships.
• Address internal political issues that negatively impact international perceptions.
• Best-case scenario: Improved global ranking through strategic alliances and enhanced political stability.
• Worst-case scenario: Further decline in ranking, leading to increased isolation and economic impact.
• Most likely scenario: Gradual improvement through targeted diplomatic and internal reforms.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Achal Malhotra, Indian ambassador to Armenia, provides insights into the factors affecting passport strength. The Ministry of External Affairs is a key entity in addressing these issues.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, geopolitical dynamics, international relations, diplomatic strategy