Published on: 2025-08-18

Intelligence Report: Will Iraq integrate the Popular Mobilization Forces into the state – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The integration of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) into the Iraqi state remains uncertain. The hypothesis that the PMF will be integrated is more supported due to legislative efforts and political incentives. However, significant challenges persist, including internal resistance and external influences. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor legislative developments and PMF activities closely, while engaging diplomatically with key stakeholders to support stabilization efforts.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The PMF will be successfully integrated into the Iraqi state structure. This hypothesis is supported by the Iraqi government’s legislative efforts to bring PMF under state control and the PMF’s own interest in gaining legitimacy and state resources.

Hypothesis 2: The PMF will resist full integration and maintain significant autonomy. This hypothesis is supported by the PMF’s historical independence, ties to Iran, and previous unilateral actions that challenge state authority.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– The Iraqi government has the capacity and political will to enforce new legislation.
– PMF factions are motivated by state legitimacy and resources over autonomy.

Red Flags:
– PMF’s ties to Iran could undermine integration efforts.
– Lack of clarity in command and control structures may lead to continued PMF autonomy.
– Potential for PMF factions to leverage political influence to resist integration.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The integration of the PMF into the Iraqi state could stabilize Iraq’s security environment if successful, reducing the influence of non-state actors. However, failure to integrate could lead to increased internal conflict, with PMF factions acting independently, potentially escalating tensions with the U.S. and regional actors. Economic implications include the potential misallocation of state resources if PMF factions continue to operate outside state control.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage with Iraqi political leaders to support legislative efforts for PMF integration.
• Monitor PMF activities and Iranian influence to anticipate resistance to integration.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: PMF integrates smoothly, enhancing Iraqi state stability.
  • Worst Case: PMF factions resist, leading to increased violence and instability.
  • Most Likely: Partial integration with ongoing challenges and negotiations.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Ayad Kadhim Ali
– Kataib Hezbollah
– Kataib Imam Ali
– Mustafa al-Kadhimi
– Ali al-Sistani
– Mehmet Alaca
– Renad Mansour

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional focus, counter-terrorism, geopolitical dynamics