Published on: 2025-07-01

Intelligence Report: Will Syria normalise relations with Israel – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The potential normalization of relations between Syria and Israel remains uncertain, with significant historical and geopolitical barriers. While there are indications of backchannel communications facilitated by regional actors, entrenched hostilities and territorial disputes, particularly concerning the Golan Heights, pose substantial challenges. Strategic engagement and confidence-building measures are essential to advance any normalization efforts.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Surface events include ongoing military confrontations and diplomatic overtures. Systemic structures are shaped by regional alliances and historical conflicts. Worldviews are influenced by deep-seated enmity and territorial claims, while myths perpetuate narratives of resistance and sovereignty.

Cross-Impact Simulation

Potential normalization could alter regional power dynamics, affecting alliances and economic dependencies. Improved relations might reduce military tensions, but could also provoke reactions from other regional actors with vested interests.

Scenario Generation

Scenarios range from continued hostilities with sporadic diplomatic engagement to a gradual thawing of relations leading to formal agreements. Each scenario hinges on shifts in regional politics and international mediation efforts.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The normalization process could destabilize existing alliances and provoke internal dissent within Syria. The unresolved status of the Golan Heights remains a flashpoint, with potential military escalations if negotiations falter. Cybersecurity threats and economic sanctions may also emerge as tools of influence or retaliation.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage confidence-building measures, such as ceasefire agreements, to reduce immediate tensions.
• Facilitate multilateral dialogues involving key regional stakeholders to address broader security concerns.
• Monitor developments closely to anticipate shifts in regional alignments and prepare for potential escalations.
• Best case: Successful negotiations lead to a formal peace agreement, enhancing regional stability. Worst case: Breakdown in talks results in renewed hostilities and regional destabilization. Most likely: Incremental progress with intermittent setbacks.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Ahmed al Sharaa, Robin Yassin-Kassab, Gideon Saar, Benjamin Netanyahu, Tom Barrack, Tzachi Hanegbi

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional diplomacy, territorial disputes, Middle East peace process