Published on: 2025-10-23

Intelligence Report: Will Tropical Storm Melissa hit the US Track uncertain but significant flash flooding likely – Check its path – The Times of India

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Tropical Storm Melissa poses a significant risk of flash flooding in the Caribbean, with uncertainty surrounding its potential impact on the US mainland. The most supported hypothesis suggests the storm will primarily affect Jamaica and Haiti, with a moderate confidence level. Recommended action includes enhanced monitoring and preparation for potential humanitarian aid in affected regions.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Tropical Storm Melissa will primarily impact Jamaica and Haiti, with minimal effects on the US mainland. This hypothesis is supported by current storm trajectory models indicating a west-northwest movement towards the Caribbean islands.

2. **Hypothesis B**: Tropical Storm Melissa will alter its path and pose a direct threat to the US mainland, particularly South Florida. This scenario considers the inherent unpredictability of storm tracks and potential shifts in atmospheric conditions.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported due to consistent model predictions and the storm’s current trajectory. However, the inherent uncertainty in storm path forecasts necessitates caution.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: Current weather models accurately predict Melissa’s path; atmospheric conditions remain stable.
– **Red Flags**: Uncertainty in storm speed and track; potential for rapid intensification or deviation from forecasted path.
– **Blind Spots**: Limited data on real-time atmospheric changes that could influence storm trajectory.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Cascading Threats**: Significant rainfall may lead to flash flooding and landslides in Jamaica and Haiti, straining local emergency response capabilities.
– **Economic Impact**: Potential disruption to tourism and agriculture in affected regions.
– **Geopolitical**: Increased demand for international aid and support could influence regional stability.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance monitoring of Tropical Storm Melissa’s path and intensity using satellite and on-ground data.
• Prepare for potential humanitarian aid deployment to Jamaica and Haiti.
• Scenario Projections:
  • **Best Case**: Storm weakens and causes minimal damage.
  • **Worst Case**: Storm intensifies, causing widespread flooding and necessitating international aid.
  • **Most Likely**: Significant rainfall and flooding in Jamaica and Haiti, with minimal impact on the US mainland.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– National Hurricane Center (NHC)
– Weather teams in Miami

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, natural disasters, humanitarian aid, regional focus