Published on: 2025-10-16

Intelligence Report: With US-China tensions back on the upswing is the TikTok deal at risk – CNA

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The TikTok deal is at significant risk due to escalating US-China tensions. The most supported hypothesis suggests that the deal’s fragility is exacerbated by geopolitical strains, making its completion unlikely under current conditions. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Increase diplomatic engagement and explore alternative solutions to safeguard user data and national security interests.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The TikTok deal will collapse due to heightened US-China tensions and unresolved issues regarding ownership and data security.
Hypothesis 2: The TikTok deal will proceed, albeit with delays, as both parties recognize the mutual economic benefits and seek to avoid further escalation.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 1 is better supported by the current intelligence. The recent increase in trade tensions, such as new tariffs and export controls, and the lack of finalized terms, suggest a high likelihood of failure. Hypothesis 2 is less supported due to the absence of concrete steps towards resolution and the ongoing geopolitical friction.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– Assumptions: Both hypotheses assume rational actor behavior, where economic interests will drive decision-making.
– Red Flags: The lack of transparency in the deal’s terms and the potential for political motivations to override economic considerations.
– Blind Spots: Potential internal pressures within China or the US that could influence decision-making are not fully accounted for.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The collapse of the TikTok deal could lead to increased economic decoupling between the US and China, affecting global supply chains and technology sectors. Cybersecurity risks may escalate if data protection issues remain unresolved. Geopolitically, failure to reach an agreement could exacerbate tensions, leading to retaliatory measures and further destabilization.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic talks to de-escalate tensions and find a mutually acceptable solution for the TikTok deal.
• Consider alternative frameworks for data security that address national security concerns without necessitating divestiture.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful renegotiation of the deal with enhanced data security measures.
  • Worst Case: Complete breakdown of negotiations leading to a ban on TikTok in the US.
  • Most Likely: Prolonged negotiations with intermittent progress, resulting in a delayed but eventual agreement.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Gary Ng
– Donald Trump
– Xi Jinping
– Mark Natkin
– Alfredo Montufar-Helu
– James Zimmerman

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, economic decoupling, US-China relations