Published on: 2025-04-12

Intelligence Report: Yemen Preparing 80,000 Man Assault on Houthi-Controlled Hodeidah – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Yemen’s government is reportedly preparing an unprecedented military offensive involving 80,000 troops to recapture Hodeidah Port from Houthi control. This operation, supported by airstrikes and potential US involvement, could significantly alter the balance of power in Yemen’s ongoing civil war. However, the offensive risks international scrutiny and potential humanitarian crises, echoing concerns from the 2018 Stockholm Agreement.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The preparation for an 80,000-strong assault on Hodeidah marks a pivotal escalation in Yemen’s civil war. Hodeidah’s strategic importance as a key port for food imports underscores the operation’s potential impact on both military and humanitarian fronts. Recent airstrikes have targeted Houthi positions, indicating a coordinated effort to weaken defenses ahead of the ground assault. The involvement of US air cover and drone surveillance suggests international dimensions to the conflict, potentially complicating diplomatic relations.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The operation poses significant risks, including:

• Potential escalation of regional tensions, drawing in neighboring countries and international actors.
• Humanitarian crisis due to disrupted supply lines and potential civilian casualties.
• Increased scrutiny and pressure from international bodies, potentially leading to sanctions or diplomatic fallout.

The offensive could destabilize regional security and economic interests, particularly if it leads to prolonged conflict or humanitarian disasters.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to mediate and de-escalate tensions, potentially involving neutral parties for negotiations.
• Enhance humanitarian aid readiness to mitigate potential crises resulting from the offensive.
• Monitor international responses and prepare for potential regulatory or economic impacts.

Outlook:

In a best-case scenario, the offensive could lead to a swift recapture of Hodeidah, paving the way for further negotiations. A worst-case scenario involves prolonged conflict and humanitarian crises, with significant international backlash. The most likely outcome is a protracted engagement with incremental territorial gains and ongoing international diplomatic challenges.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Significant individuals mentioned in the report include Abdulaziz Sager and Michael Erik Kurilla. Key entities involved are the Yemeni government, Houthi forces, and US Central Command. The report highlights their roles in the strategic developments but refrains from detailing specific affiliations.