Published on: 2026-01-07

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Intelligence Report: Yemen anti-Houthi council expels separatist leader and says he faces treason charges

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The expulsion of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) leader, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, by the anti-Houthi council marks a significant escalation in intra-coalition tensions, potentially destabilizing the anti-Houthi front in Yemen. This development could exacerbate the already complex geopolitical dynamics in the region, affecting Saudi-UAE relations. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate due to the limited information on the internal dynamics of the involved parties.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The expulsion of al-Zubaidi is primarily a power struggle within the anti-Houthi coalition, driven by competing interests and external influences from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Supporting evidence includes the reported tensions over territorial control and the UAE’s recent withdrawal under Saudi pressure. Key uncertainties include the extent of UAE’s continued support for the STC.
• Hypothesis B: The expulsion is a strategic move by Saudi Arabia to consolidate control over the anti-Houthi coalition and marginalize factions that do not align with its objectives. This is supported by Saudi-led airstrikes on STC positions and the intelligence reports of al-Zubaidi’s military movements. Contradicting evidence includes the STC’s ongoing negotiations in Saudi Arabia.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the historical context of factionalism within the coalition and the UAE’s strategic interests in Yemen. Indicators that could shift this judgment include changes in UAE’s military posture or a formal reconciliation between the STC and Saudi-backed forces.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The STC retains significant military capabilities; Saudi Arabia seeks to maintain a unified anti-Houthi front; UAE’s withdrawal is strategic rather than tactical.
• Information Gaps: Detailed intelligence on the STC’s internal decision-making processes; clarity on UAE’s future military and political commitments in Yemen.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in reporting from SABA news agency; risk of misinformation from involved parties to manipulate international perception.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

This development may lead to a fracturing of the anti-Houthi coalition, weakening its military effectiveness against the Houthis and complicating peace efforts. It could also strain Saudi-UAE relations, impacting broader regional alliances.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased regional instability and shifts in alliances, particularly between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Increased risk of localized conflicts and a potential resurgence of extremist activities exploiting the power vacuum.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased propaganda and misinformation campaigns by involved parties to influence public and international opinion.
• Economic / Social: Further deterioration of Yemen’s economic conditions, exacerbating humanitarian crises and social unrest.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance intelligence collection on STC activities and Saudi-UAE interactions; engage in diplomatic efforts to mediate between coalition factions.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Strengthen regional partnerships to stabilize the anti-Houthi coalition; develop contingency plans for potential escalation scenarios.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best Case: Reconciliation within the coalition, leading to a unified front against the Houthis.
  • Worst Case: Complete breakdown of the coalition, leading to increased Houthi territorial gains.
  • Most Likely: Continued tensions with sporadic cooperation, maintaining a fragile status quo.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Aidarous al-Zubaidi – STC Leader
• Presidential Leadership Council – Anti-Houthi leadership group
• Saudi Arabia – Regional power involved in coalition
• United Arab Emirates – Former backer of the STC
• Amr al-Bidh – STC official focused on foreign affairs
• Maj. Gen. Turki al-Malki – Spokesperson for Saudi-led coalition

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, Yemen conflict, anti-Houthi coalition, Saudi-UAE relations, regional stability, military strategy, geopolitical tensions, separatist movements

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.

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